These posts may seem repetitive or redundant, but I’m going to keep posting them until/unless the potential for a Southeast winter storm fizzles next week.

The European (ECMWF) model continues to hint at a perfect setup for a winter storm in the Southeast. And while not every model is on board with the Euro’s depiction, virtually every model is now showing various pieces of the puzzle that will create a synoptic puzzle conducive for a rare early December snowstorm.

Of course the naysayers can say, “Ah, it isn’t going to happen” and they’ll more than likely be right…you can base that on climatology alone. But the players for a winter storm are on the table. It’s just a matter of whether it will all pan out. As with any winter storm threat in the Southeast, it’s almost a matter of Ol’ Man Winter having to thread the needle for it to come together just right.

We’ve been under a negative North Atlantic Oscillation and a negative Arctic Oscillation for some time now. As we’ve discussed in the past, those oscillations are conducive for cold air in the Southeast when they’re in negative territory; not so much when they’re in positive territory. It’s a rudimentary explanation but the easiest way to explain it is like this: a negative AO allows cold air to be unleashed from the Arctics, while a negative NAO blocks the pattern and forces that cold air to stay in the continental U.S.

Since the NAO headed back into negative territory after a brief and shallow jaunt into positive territory a few weeks ago, we haven’t had a blocking system in place over the northern Atlantic. While a -NAO means conditions are right for a system to stall out and create a block, it doesn’t mean such a system is going to set up. But if the domestic GFS computer model and the Euro are right, that blocking will set up by the end of this week.

That’s the first piece of the puzzle. A weak system will slide across the Midwest this weekend, dragging a cold front behind it. If things go as planned, that will allow cold air to spill into the Southeast and set the stage for potential wintry weather.

The next piece of the puzzle is a piece of energy that’s currently well off the Pacific Coast. That piece of energy will wash ashore as a shortwave at the beginning of next week. If models are correct, it’s going to slide south and eventually become a low pressure system. If the models are incorrect, the Pacific flow will continue to overwhelm the pattern, as often happens in a La Nina year.

If and when that system develops, what happens next is anyone’s guess. Whether it phases and when will go a long way towards determining if anyone sees snow, and who.

It could literally be anything from a “lakes cutter,” as it’s referred to in the weather community to a system that stays well off the Gulf Coast. A lakes cutter would bring us milder and even potentially severe weather. A low that stays off the coast leaves us dry and probably cold.

Currently, the three major long-range models — the domestic GFS, the Canadian GGEM and the European ECMWF — all are taking a different approach to this system. The GFS and GGEM show the extremes in either direction, while the ECMWF takes the middle-of-the-road approach that could bring snow to the Southeast.

The ECMWF’s operational model is currently showing a major snow for the northern parts of the Deep South states — Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia. The mean of the ensemble members of the model (each ensemble member uses some data variations that differ from the operational model) shows a snow for Tennessee and perhaps southern Kentucky. The EMCWF is historically an outstanding model with excellent verification. This year it has been outperformed by the GFS.

If this storm does develop as a winter storm, there’s no way of knowing who will be in the path of it, except to say that the entire region probably isn’t going to be impacted. It could be Tennessee; it could be the northern half of Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia; it could be the Carolinas.

If that sounds like a long way of saying there’s no way of knowing what the weather will be next week, well…you’re right. But all the players for a winter storm is on the table. It’s just a matter of how they all come together.

A new sports network aims to revolutionize the way fans receive news about their favorite teams.

247sports.com launched in the summer and has been slowly growing during the initial college football season of its existence. Most of that growth has been behind the scenes — 247sports now has team sites for a handful of premier college teams, but is a long way from covering the entire college sports landscape — but there have been rumblings that the network will prove to be the “next big thing” for sports fans.

The concept is a simple one: build a national network with reporters to cover each school and its recruiting. 247sports.com won’t be dramatically different than Fox-owned Scout.com or Yahoo-owned Rivals.com.

There will be some differences, however. For one, 247sports boasts a message board platform that is supposedly superior to its chief competitors and predecessors. For another, a paid membership to Scout or Rivals covers just one team site. A paid membership to 247sports will cover the entire network.

Rivals was the first of these national sports networks, founded by Jim Heckman. (Side note: I was a publisher on the Rivals network back in the early days before they filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection and restructured. I got the axe in the process.) Heckman later founded Scout after becoming disgruntled at Rivals.

Those once-fledgling networks now have unlimited resources after being purchased by media conglomerates with nearly bottomless money bags. So it will take a lot of resources for 247sports to compete.

But there is muscle and brain behind the operation. Former Rivals CEO Shannon Terry is the driving force behind 247sports, after leaving Rivals reportedly over disagreements with Yahoo. Terry was named to the Sports Business Journal’s 40 Under 40 lists in 2007 and 2008 and was more recently named by the journal as one of online sports’ 20 most influential people.

And if the early days of the 247sports network are any indication, a serious amount of cash is being invested. 247sports has spent its first few months in existence cherry-picking beat reporters and publishers from mainstream news organizations and its online competitors alike, as it has gotten 21 team sites up and running.

The most recent example is Chattanooga Times Free Press Vols beat reporter Wes Rucker. Rucker tweeted last night that he is leaving the newspaper in January to take a position with 247sports as a beat writer for a soon-to-come Tennessee team site.

In these days of around-the-world publishing at the click of a button, writers’ work extends well beyond the realm of their publication’s traditional subscriber base, and Rucker has become arguably the most popular reporter on the Tennessee beat. He revolutionized the way newshounds on the Tennessee beat use social media; his frequent Twitter and Facebook status updates are popular with fans and played no small part in building his reputation.

The question, of course, is whether 247sports can survive as a newcomer in the fiercely competitive sports world. Convincing firmly entrenched writers to join their efforts is the first step, and that proves one thing: 247sports is spending some serious cash on this venture. The best-laid plans will carry you only so far. When you’re recruiting talent, that age-old adage still applies: money talks; bullsnot walks.

But those who have seen the 247sports model are excited by it. More than one person has declared that Scout and Rivals will be unable to keep up.

“I’ve seen the plans and 247 will revolutionize the game, I assure you. That’s why I said yes,” Rucker said in a Facebook comment.

How far it revolutionizes the game remains to be seen. On a national level, it shouldn’t prove too difficult to compete with Rivals and Scout. Brent Hubbs, publisher of Tennessee’s Rival affiliate, VolQuest.com, has proven to be immensely successful and is also professional at what he does. Many other team sites elsewhere on the network, however, leave quite a lot to be desired. That’s where, with the right talent leading their efforts, 247sports can make inroads. Even with easily recognizable faces like Rucker’s working the Tennessee angle, it will be difficult for Tennessee247 to compete with VolQuest. But with an established national network, it won’t be as important for 247sports to compete right away on an individual team basis. And, over time, VolQuest’s firm grip on Tennessee sports might just be eroded somewhat.

But there is still limited potential to what any of these networks can accomplish. The most fundamental question of traditional vs. new media exists: how can you convince users to pay for content?

Let’s face it: you can’t get news stories from VolQuest or InsideTennessee (the Scout affiliate) that you cannot get from the Knoxville News Sentinel’s Go Vols Xtra. Hubbs and IT publisher James Bryant often manage to scoop the traditional media, but all news outlets have their hands on it within minutes. Even recruiting news, once a specialty of Rivals and Scout, is matched pretty well by the News Sentinel as it invests more resources into that side of the game.

What you do get from sites like Rivals, however, are rumors. Things that may be true but are without enough confirmation to print. Hubbs and his staff post nuggets to the VolQuest message boards throughout the day. Those nuggets are invaluable to football fans salivating for the next bit of news about their favorite program, and many — if not most — pay a subscription to the site for exactly that reason. And that’s an angle 247sports apparently hopes to exploit with what is said to be a technologically superior message board format.

If nothing else, 247sports could prove to be the death knell for ESPN’s pay wall, which is struggling anyway. ESPN has hired beat reporters — including the Tennessean’s Chris Low — to bolster its local resources, thus building content for which it can charge. But there have been questions whispered as to how long the ESPN model can survive.

Scott County continues to have the state’s highest unemployment rate, and it isn’t even close. The local jobless rate is 19%. The next highest jobless rate in Tennessee is 15.5%.

But there was still good news in the latest round of jobless numbers released last week by the Dept. of Labor & Workforce Development. Scott County’s jobless rate dropped 0.8% in October, down from 19.8% in September.

While the unemployment rate declined in 43 counties across the state in October, the 0.8% drop seen locally was larger than most.

The jobless decrease was different in another area: there have been unemployment decreases in recent months that were largely the result of unemployment benefits expiring. This time, however, there were actually jobs added to the roles. According to the numbers released by the Dept. of Labor & Workforce Development, 100 more Scott Countians had a job in October than in September, an increase of about 2.2% (total employment increased from 4,430 to 4,530). That’s the largest jobs gain Scott County has seen since January 2010. The total number of workers seek ing unemployment benefits

in October decreased by 60.

A sign of a turnaround? One can only hope. While local firms have announced no major hiring plans, there are good things on the horizon. Highland Telephone Cooperative is about to begin a federally-funded fiber project that will create a number of temporary jobs. By the time that project is complete in two years, perhaps local industry will be well on the upswing.

Press release:

NASHVILLE, Tenn. - Tennessee Governor Phil Bredesen and Economic and Community
Development Commissioner Matt Kisber today confirmed the state of Tennessee is in
discussions with Seattle, Washington-based Amazon.com, Inc about locating two
fulfillment centers in Tennessee, one at the Enterprise South Industrial Park in
Chattanooga and the other along State Route 308 in Bradley County, Tennessee. If
negotiations are successful, the two projects would represent a combined investment
of more than $164 million dollars to create more than two million square feet of
distribution space and up to 1,400 new jobs over a period of years.

We are working diligently with Amazon.com officials to work through outstanding
issues on this project, said Governor Bredesen. It is my hope that we can bring
these discussions to a successful resolution and create a large number of jobs for
the people of Tennessee.

There has been lots of speculation in the media in recent weeks about who we might
be working with on this project, said Commissioner Kisber. Because of the need to
move forward at the local level on PILOT (payment-in-lieu-of tax) agreements in
multiple communities, we felt it was important at this time for policy makers at the
state and local level to know who were in discussions with.

Commissioner Kisber has been leading a team which includes Hamilton County Mayor
Claude Ramsey, Chattanooga Mayor Ron Littlefield, Gary Farlow, president and CEO,
Chamber of Commerce of Cleveland and Bradley County and Trevor Hamilton, vice
president, Chattanooga Area Chamber of Commerce in discussions with Amazon.com, Inc.
All parties have pointed out a number of procedural steps must be completed
involving the state, the county commissions and the local city councils before the
project is a go.

This is not a done deal, Mayor Littlefield said. In addition to the PILOT
agreements, there are a number of other issues to work through at the state and
local level, but we have high hopes of firming up Amazons investment in the next few
weeks.

Amazon would make a great addition to our local economy, said  Mayor Ramsey. 
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 This is
a complex project. We couldn't have gotten this far without Hamilton County, Bradley
County, the city of Chattanooga and the respective chambers from both communities
working together to make this much progress in a short period of time. Well keep
working together to make sure the opportunity becomes a reality for our citizens.

Even though this is not yet a done deal, Bradley County is taking the necessary
steps to finalize its local commitment to the company, said Gary Davis, mayor,
Bradley County. I am very pleased the county commission decided in workshop session
to place the proposed PILOT agreement, industrial access authorization and the
FastTrack grant authorization on the consent agenda for next Mondays meeting. To my
knowledge, this is the first PILOT agreement ever placed on the consent portion of
the agenda and it clearly reflects the level of cooperation, understanding, and
trust we have all worked hard to establish between the Administration, the Bradley
County Commission, and the Industrial Development Board.

Amazons presence will mean important opportunities for good jobs, said Ross Tarver,
chairman, Bradley/Cleveland Industrial Board. A project this far-reaching has many
components and takes time to finalize. We could not have gotten to this point
without a dedicated and focused regional team working together and our city, county,
chamber and state are to be commended.

The Amazon project has come together very rapidly over the past couple of months,
said Trevor Hamilton, vice president, Chattanooga Chamber of Commerce. The company
has a very ambitious construction timeline, so reaching resolution on the remaining
issues is very important if were to be successful in winning this project.

About the Tennessee Department of Economic and Community Development
The Tennessee Department of Economic and Community Developments mission is to create
higher skilled, better paying jobs for all Tennesseans. The department seeks to
attract new corporate investment in Tennessee and works with Tennessee companies to
facilitate expansion and economic growth. To find out more, go to www.tn.gov/ecd or
www.investtennessee.org.

LOL:

After thanking the UT fans for their support and issuing an apology, stating he “brought embarrassment to our university and I’m humiliated and embarrassed by it,” Pearl asked the cameras be turned off.

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“I’ve made mistakes, I clearly did, but what I was hoping for was that some other dumbass would get on the front page and take me off the hook,” Pearl said. “I miss Lane Kiffin.”

Could an early December snowstorm be in the making for parts of the Southeast?

Probably not. But I say that from a climatological sense: December snows rarely happen in these parts. Fact is, a lot of the major ingredients look to fall into place for a snowstorm by next week.

Dec. 8 is the date I penciled in yesterday and there’s no reason to deviate from that thinking right now.

Here’s the setup: A severely negative North Atlantic Oscillation is progged by models to begin to relax as we move into next week. But both the GFS and European weather models show a blocking low pressure system setting up in the north Atlantic as we move into next week, which could serve as a catalyst to finally unleash a major dumping of cold air on the South. The step down to cooler weather begins with the system that is moving into the region as I type this. But what really ushers in temperatures cold enough to support snow is a weak system that is projected to traverse the eastern U.S. to our north — trekking the mid Ohio Valley — towards the end of the weekend.

That opens the door to colder temperatures, which are projected by most major models to spill southward on Dec. 6 and 7.

Behind that, a low pressure system develops over the Deep South or the Gulf of Mexico and begins to trek northeast. This storm is being shown by many various models, which makes me confident that it’s going to happen. But the million dollar question is where it sets up and where it goes. That’s where the models diverge.

This morning’s 0z run of the GFS showed the storm pretty far north, taking it up the spine of the Appalachians. In that scenario, there would be enough warm air advection from the Gulf of Mexico to erode the cold air, even if sufficient cold air is in place to begin with. East Tennessee would see mostly rain as a result, possibly changing over to snow for a brief time as cold air filters back in behind the departing system.

This morning’s 6z run of the GFS seriously suppressed the system, keeping it weak and far to our south, then bombing it off the East Coast. That scenario would feature cold but dry weather for our region. In fact, the 6z GFS and the 12z run that followed are depicting the coldest air of the season so far for much of the Southeast next week.

The European model, on the other hand, shows a picture-perfect Miller A developing, bringing a significant snow storm to a large swath of the Southeast and the Mid-Atlantic.

What happens? Who knows. If a snow storm does develop, there’s no guarantee of where it’s going to set up. It could be a snow storm for the Ohio Valley, for the Tennessee Valley or for the Deep South. Or it could be a Carolina special or spare everyone but the Mid-Atlantic. Right now, the European model is showing a perfect scenario for a pre-Christmas snow in parts of the Mid-South. In years past, the Euro has sometimes been more reliable than the GFS. But so far this season, the GFS has been the more reliable of the two models.

In any event, the potential is there.

FURTHER OUT

Chances for a white Christmas continue to look very slim in East Tennessee. Of course, they’re slim in any given year. In northern Tennessee, the chances of a white Christmas are just about 15% on average. This year could be less than that. Right now our weather is being influenced by a negative North Atlantic Oscillation and negative Arctic Oscillation. Ordinarily, that might usher in a predominately cold pattern. But what we’re seeing right now is that it’s just an average pattern for this time of year. Even if we see cold weather next week, it promises to be short lived, with high pressure ushering warmer, average temperatures back in as we move towards the Dec. 10-11 timeframe.

Eventually, the -AO and -NAO are going to relax. In fact, the GFS model is flirting with weakly positive oscillations on both fronts before we get to mid December.

When (not if, but when) that switch occurs, it’s going to usher in a warmer pattern. It might happen soon, as the GFS seems to be hinting, or it might happen later. Either way, when it happens, I think we can expect to see a predominately warm pattern set up in our region. How long that pattern will hold on is anyone’s guess, but it could prove to be quite stubborn as winter begins on the calendar and beyond.

Texas Christian University is headed to the Big East conference in 2012.

After Boise State joins the Mountain West, this is the second team to leave the conference.

Utah is leaving to join the newly expanded Pac-10.

So while it once appeared likely that the MWC would get a BCS nod, TCU’s move now guarantees that the MWC will not become a BCS conference.

Two of the three recent non-BCS football powers are now in BCS conferences (TCU is currently No. 3 in the rankings and could earn a spot in the national championship game if Oregon or Auburn lose this weekend, while Utah felt slighted a couple of years ago when it was left out of the championship game). The team left out in the cold? Boise State.

From Power Line:

The New York Times is participating in the dissemination of the stolen State Department cables that have been made available to it in one way or another via WikiLeaks. My friend Steve Hayward recalls that only last year the New York Times ostentatiously declined to publish or post any of the Climategate e-mails because they had been illegally obtained.

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Surely readers will recall Times reporter Andrew Revkin’s inspiring statement of principle: “The documents appear to have been acquired illegally and contain all manner of private information and statements that were never intended for the public eye, so they won’t be posted here.”

…I would look very hard at Dec. 8, give or take a day in either direction on the calendar.

That’s still ten days out and there are plenty of uncertanties, but there’s a ton of potential for someone in the Southeast

to be in the path of a snowstorm during that general time frame. It might be northern Tennessee and southern Kentucky. It might be the mountains. It might be northern Mississippi-Alabama-Georgia. But there is a load of potential there as a deeply negative North Atlantic Oscillation begins to relax with some blocking taking place and some slight ridging begins to build into the eastern Pacific, coupled with a nice storm system forming over the region.

More on this in the days ahead.

The SEC’s first coaching vacancy post-2010 is the last school to name a coach. Interim head coach Robbie Caldwell has resigned at Vanderbilt.

Caldwell was named the interim coach after Bobby Johnson’s late summer resignation put the Commodores in a bad spot. Caldwell wowed the media at SEC Media Days in Hoover, Ala., just days after being promoted, but his sideline debut was far from stellar, as Vandy won just two games.

In Oxford, Miss., Houston Nutt is scheduled to meet with his team and will hold an end-of-season press conference on Monday. That has led to some speculation that Nutt is going to resign at Ole Miss…which seems unlikely, despite the Rebels’ 4-8 finish. However, there has been some speculation that Nutt might be a candidate for the Colorado vacancy.

While Miami isn’t in the SEC, the Hurricanes’ coaching vacancy could have an impact on the league. Shortly after Saturday’s loss to South Florida, the ‘Canes ousted head coach Randy Shannon, despite his 28-22 overall record and a 7-5 finish this season. There is rampant speculation that Jon Gruden will be the next Miami coach. Gruden, who coached Tampa Bay to a Super Bowl win but was later fired by the Bucs, has been a hypothetical candidate for several college coaching vacancies over the past several years — most notably, Tennessee, where he began his career as a grad assistant and was rumored to be a favorite to replace both Phil Fulmer and Lane Kiffin — but in reality Gruden isn’t interested in most college jobs. Miami might be an exception. This rumor appears to have teeth.

So how does it impact the SEC? Generally speaking, a stronger Miami and a stronger Florida State means a weaker Florida. Next to California, Florida is probably the nation’s biggest hotbed of prep football talent.

At one time, the three major programs were on equal footing and each was able to grab its fair share of in-state talent. In recent years, Florida has been able to cherry-pick that in-state talent. Florida State has already shown that its well on its way to being back, and it will be assumed that Gruden will be able to turn Miami around, as well.

Prior to the Gruden-to-Miami talk heating up, there was speculation that Georgia’s Mark Richt might be in talks with the Hurricanes. That speculation was quickly squelched. Richt, who played at Miami, is on the hot seat in Athens, despite his team defeating arch rival Georgia Tech on Saturday to become bowl eligible. Conventional wisdom says that Richt should be the next Houston Nutt — taking a proactive approach to his job. Nutt left Arkansas for Ole Miss when it was apparent that his future in Fayetteville would come to an end sooner than later.