I learned something distressing this weekend: David Tallent, the long-time Dollywood magician/comedian is no longer at Dollywood…and apparently hasn’t been for a couple of years (which just goes to show how long it has been since I was at Dollywood).
I’m not sure why that depresses me, but it does just a little. I can remember seeing Tallent perform in his same spot by the train depot since I was just a kid. Dollywood is a little less Dollywood and just another theme park without David Tallent. He was as much Dollywood as the Kingdom Heirs, the Blazing Fury and Heartsong Theater.
First they took out The Log Ride and now there is no David Tallent squirting water at people as they get off the train
» Posted in Football on January 31st, 2011 by BenG.
Wednesday is National Signing Day for college football. Tennessee’s class is currently ranked No. 18 by Rivals.com, based on 23 commitments the Vols have received. But there is some thinking among those who like to pretend that they have this recruiting game all figured out that Derek Dooley & staff might finish strong, propelling UT a little higher in the recruiting ranking.
For the diehard college football fan, Wednesday is like the opening weekend of the NCAA Tournament in basketball or Major League Baseball’s opening day. It should be interesting to see how Dooley closes out his first real recruiting class at Tennessee.
» Posted in Weather on January 31st, 2011 by BenG.
No sooner do I post that we shouldn’t see any significant winter weather threats for the next couple of weeks than do some models start to show the potential for winter weather in East Tennessee as soon as this weekend.
The most notable global weather models, the GFS and the Euro, aren’t really showing anything. But a couple of others, namely the Canadian and DGEX, are. I don’t see it happening, because I don’t think the cold air has enough staying power. But it’s worth noting.
Meanwhile, a massive winter storm is unfolding across the nation’s midsection. If I had enough free time, I would load up my vehicle and head for central Missouri or Illinois.
The same storm that will bring us rain the next couple of days is literally going to be their version of the Blizzard of ’93…a once-in-a-generation type of storm that looks to unload crippling winter weather, ranging from significant icing to blizzard conditions. That would be fun to see…though maybe not fun for those who will doubtlessly be without power for several days. This is the same storm that looked like it might be a wintry threat for us a week ago…but without any blocking to the north, there was nothing to hold the storm south.
A few days ago we were posing the question about which of the major domestic weather models would be right in regards to this weekend’s weather: the GFS, which was suggesting a high of around 50 on Saturday and Sunday, or the NAM, which was suggesting a high in the upper 50s on Saturday and 61 on Sunday.
As it turned out, they were both too cold, as our high temperature here on the northern Plateau tapped 60 on Saturday and pushed close to 70 degrees today. In a winter that has been notably relentless with cold air, it was almost strange to see temperatures push to near record territories this weekend (the record for today was 74, in case you’re wondering).
While this weekend’s temps may not be the norm for the rest of winter, the general theme is a break in the cold and snow that much of Tennessee has experienced for the past seven weeks or so. The North Atlantic Oscillation is now in positive territory and looks to stay there for at least a couple of weeks. The Arctic Oscillation is in positive territory and looks like it could go into strong positive territory in the days ahead.
The Pacific North American ridge index is still in positive territory for now, but will likely crash in the days ahead.
A +NAO/+AO/-PNA combination will make cold air and wintry weather hard to come by for much of the Mid-South for as long as it persists…which should be at least the first half of February. If history is our guide, strong La Ninas often mean an abrupt and early end to winter and an early spring. This year hasn’t really been a typical La Nina year, however, and I wouldn’t bet against a short return to winter weather in the latter part of February before spring sets in…if the pattern that is currently shaping up manages to break down at some point.
This pattern will shift the storm track west, allowing those “lakes cutter” and “Apps runner” storms to become predominate instead of the more southerly storm track we experienced in much of December and January. That means East Tennessee will often be on the southeastern side of those storms, in the warm sector. That isn’t to say that we won’t see cold air; look no further out than mid-week for our next intrusion of colder temps…the GFS model is currently projecting a high of 37 on Wednesday and 35 on Thursday. But with no blocking in the north Atlantic (hence, the +NAO) to lock that cold air in, any cold air we see for the next couple of weeks should be glancing shots that come and go in a hurry, with backside snow flurries or a stray snow shower being our only real threat of wintry weather. The overall theme is that the cold and snow we experienced in December and January will probably be scarce for at least the first half of February. I doubt anyone will complain.
As always, refer to the National Weather Service and your favorite newscasts for accurate weather forecasts. This blog is merely a discussion of what models are saying about the weather and weather trends.
Tennessee turned a 32-32 halftime game into a 75-57 win over Ole Miss today, the Vols’ fourth consecutive win in SEC play.
UT is now 4-2 in league play, a far cry from where just about everyone thought they would be when they started off the SEC season (and Bruce Pearl’s suspension) with back-to-back SEC losses.
The wins include one over a Vanderbilt team that is now ranked and against a good Georgia team on the road. And the losses were by three against an Arkansas team that is proving to be better than anyone expected and against a ranked Florida team in overtime.
But what these games really show is how good a job Tony Jones is doing as an in-game head coach (it isn’t really fair to call him “interim” head coach since Bruce Pearl is still in charge except for gamedays). Back during those first two SEC games, Jones looked almost uncomfortable patrolling the sideline. As this young SEC season has progressed towards its midpoint, however, he is looking more and more like a seasoned veteran. Aga inst Vanderbilt, Tennessee struggled mightily
in the first half, trailing by as much as 17. Jones made the proper adjustments and pushed the right buttons to turn that embarrassing first half effort into a come-from-behind win over the Commodores. Today, Jones again made the right adjustments to turn a struggle into a big win. Bruce Pearl may make all the decisions during the week, but he isn’t making the decisions during the game. He can’t be there to make the minor adjustments and tweaks to the game plan as the game progresses. And Jones is handling those tasks very, very well.
It’s long been apparent that Jones’ contributions as an associate head coach have been invaluable to Pearl’s success at Tennessee. And it’s been apparent that Jones would someday be a head coach if he really wants to be.
But what we’re witnessing right now may be Jones buying himself an opportunity to coach college basketball at a fairly high level. His level of involvement with Pearl’s transgressions — which, so far at least, isn’t publicly known — may keep some programs from taking a chance on him right now. But let’s not be surprised if a program comes calling somewhere in the not so distant future. Jones has proven his worth as a recruiter and as an assistant at Tennessee. Now he’s proving his worth as an Xs and Os guy who can win games.
I took advantage of today’s spring-like weather for a hike on the Honey Creek Loop Trail in the Big South Fork National River & Recreation Area. Straddling the Scott-Fentress line on the southern end of the park, Honey Creek is a 5.6-mile loop trail that is often called the most strenuous hike within the 125,000-acre national park. The trail winds into and out of the gorge, offering a glimpse of all the landforms that make the Big South Fork NRRA unique. It is not a leisurely stroll; children and dogs are not recommended. The trail includes numerous stream crossings (at times following the stream beds), climbs over rocks and through boulder houses, and up and down steep ladders. Adding to the rugged nature of the trail is the fact that it is poorly marked, making it easy to wander off the trail in places.
The trail begins with an easy stroll through open hardwoods before quickly dropping off to Honey Creek. Several waterfalls are along the route and the trail winds around the edge of the gorge for a short distance before the true beauty of the park begins to emerge. The trail winds down into the gorge, passing several rock caverns that are among the largest within the entire park. Photos cannot possibly do the trail justice as it falls quickly toward the Big South Fork River. First-timers are often surprised by the rugged nature of the terrain. The drive to Honey Creek takes visitors by the Clear Fork River, which is relatively gentle and tame when compared to the BSF River. But Honey Creek and its tributaries empty into the BSF River, just downstream from the confluence between Clear Fork and New River. That stretch of river is the roughest of the entire stretch, including the infamous “Big Three” rapids that are a popular destination for whitewater enthusiasts.
After a short trek along the river, the trail turns back up, making a steep descent to the bottom of the cliff line. A pair of steep ladders lead to the Honey Creek Overlook, which offers spectacular views of the river gorge. From there, the trail drops back into the gorge and winds its way back to the trail head.
Honey Creek should be on the short list of must-do experiences for everyone who enjoys nature.
It’s a beautiful day at the Honey Creek Trailhead. Everything is quiet except for the sound of a gentle breeze in the treetops and a plane taking off at the Scott County Airport in the distance. Don’t be fooled by the gentle setting at the trailhead. The trail and surrounding terrain is anything but.
Icicles hang from a rock overhang a short distance from the trailhead.
More than a decade later, evidence of the Southern Pine Beetle infestation is still visible.
The pine-boring bugs devastated loblolly forests throughout the area, including all of the Honey Creek area outside the gorge.
East Tennessee or the untamed West?
A small feeder creek off of Honey Creek.
Honey Creek Falls.
Another view of Honey Creek Falls.
Crawling through jumbled boulders at Boulder House Falls. In a couple of places, the trail travels through a tunnel created by large boulders that tumbled from the cap rock long ago.
A house-sized boulder lies in Honey Creek, its final resting place after tumbling from the gorge wall high above in days gone by.
It’s a bad picture but this is Boulder House Falls.
Proof that 60 degree temperatures in late January are fool’s gold.
One of several very large rock caverns along the edge of the gorge. Often incorrectly referred to as caves, the enormous rock shelters provided security for small Indian tribes and native hunting parties long ago. They measure more than 100 ft. wide, 70 ft. deep and 30 ft. from floor to ceiling.
A wooden ladder provides entrance to another rock shelter.
The view from the outside looking in.
Do I look tired? Yes.
A view of Honey Creek.
More ice.
Another view of Honey Creek.
And yet another view.
Climbing the ladder back to the top of the gorge. The steep ladder is more than 40 ft. tall.
» Posted in Weather on January 28th, 2011 by BenG.
A couple of days ago, I mentioned that the next low pressure system progged for around Groundhog Day had a varied outlook with different models showing it doing different things, from a “lakes cutter” that brings us a mild rain to a Deep South low that brings us snow.
This general setup screams lakes cutter, so called because it “cuts” for the Great Lakes region before trekking across the eastern U.S. The result is warm, moist air being pulled into the Southeast from the Gulf of Mexico and, sometimes, thunderstorms or even severe storms for parts of the region.
A typical La Nina winter season brings a number of these lake cutters. In fact, in recent years we’ve had several each winter regardless of the ENSO pattern. But this hasn’t been a typical La Nina winter (stop me if you’ve heard that before) and we haven’t had many lakes cutters.
The GFS and the Euro models, the two most trusted medium-range models, have shown this system trekking along the coast, bringing the threat of snow and even freezing rain to the Mid-South. Yesterday, the Euro was showing a major ice storm for Nashville. However, the Canadian and some other models were making this storm a lakes cutter. And, frankly, that makes sense. An arctic front will try to slide south ahead of this storm, which could provide cold air…but with a lack of blocking in the north Atlantic (the North Atlantic Oscillation is currently trending positive), the amount of available cold air becomes questionable. Also, with no strong high pressure system to our north to force this storm south, there’s little to prevent it from taking a trek to the lakes.
But when the GFS and Euro are both showing similar scenarios, you have to stop and take a hard look at them. However, they have both changed overnight. The Euro is now showing the lakes cutter scenario. The GFS isn’t quite as far north, but plenty far enough north to take the threat of wintry weather out of the equation for Tennessee. It has the low pressure system parked over Bowling Green, Ky. by dawn Wednesday morning. The result? For one of the few times since cold air settled into the region in November, we should have a storm system that doesn’t bring a threat of snow…maybe some flurries on the back side as cold air filters back in, but nothing to get excited about. In fact, the GFS model output statistics suggest a high of 51 degrees on Wednesday, with cold air flowing in behind that.
HOW WARM THIS WEEKEND?
The prelude to this next storm should be a nice one…perhaps our warmest temperatures of this winter so far, if some of the model data verifies. And considering how cold we’ve been, that will feel downright balmy. The GFS has been consistent with keeping the northern Plateau only around 50 or slightly above on Saturday through Monday.
However, the Euro and NAM models have been consistently projecting warmer temps than that. In fact, the latest output statistics from the NAM suggests a high of 57 on Saturday and — brace yourself — 61 on Sunday.
Now that’s more like La Nina. The GFS, unfortunately, only shows 49 on Saturday and 51 Sunday. The National Weather Service is siding with the GFS, forecasting low 50s throughout the weekend.
THE FUTURE
With the NAO trending positive and looking to stay there for the next couple of weeks and the Arctic Oscillation perhaps going very positive over the next few days, we should have a nice break in store. The GFS has been hinting at another winter storm threat about 9 days into February, but I wouldn’t count on it in this pattern.
I also wouldn’t count on winter being over. We might get a break for a couple or three weeks and then see winter come back with a vengeance for one last slap in the face. Let’s watch the long-range trends over the next few days and see what shapes up…
In an unexpected development in what already has been a turbulent offseason in Tennessee, the Titans and Jeff Fisher, the NFL’s longest-tenured head coach, are preparing to part ways, SI.com learned Thursday afternoon.
According to an NFL source close to the situation in Tennessee, the move could be announced as early as Friday, although it’s uncertain if Fisher’s departure will be termed a firing, a resignation or a mutual parting of ways.
Though information about Fisher’s situation was scarce Thursday, it was confirmed by a league source that he will not return to coach t
he team in 2011, contrary to what was previously expected. Fisher was said to be in the process of negotiating the terms of his departure with Titans owner Bud Adams.
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