A 4.7 magnitude earthquake shook central Arkansas last night and was felt by residents in five states, including Tennessee.

There has been a significant uptick in earthquakes in the region in recent months,

puzzling the USGS and leading some to blame the drilling of oil wells.

While the quakes thus far are generally believed to have nothing to do with the New Madrid Fault Zone, some believe — especially after last night’s 4.7 ground-shaker — that something may be brewing beneath the surface.

Here’s the map of the more than 1,000 earthquakes that have occurred in the U.S. in recent months. Note the swarms in northeastern Arkansas and central Oklahoma.

March may not come in like a lion tomorrow, but February is certainly going out like one.

Near zero visibility on the morning commute as a line of thunderstorms arrives on the Cumberland Plateau:

NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center has our entire region outlined in a moderate risk area for severe weather tomorrow, including all of Middle and East Tennessee, most of Kentucky, the northern portions of the Gulf states and the western Carolinas.

The SPC says that “a potentially widespread severe episode is likely on Monday, including the possibility of widespread swaths of damaging winds in addition to tornadoes.”

The biggest threat appears to be high straight-line winds, mostly accompanied by a strong squall line that should accompany a cold front’s progression across the region. However, there will be a tornado risk as well, especially in any thunderstorms that develop out ahead of the main line. That threat will exist until the cold front finally sweeps through the region.

A threat of flooding will also accompany these storms. A flood watch has already been issued for all of eastern Kentucky.

Closer to home, the National Weather Service’s Morristown field office has issued a wind advisory for the plateau and the mountains, where wind gusts as high as 50 mph aren’t out of the question beginning in the early morning hours. While the highest gusts should be relegated to elevations above 2,500 ft., it will be quite windy in the lower elevations as well.

The NWS’s forecast is for a 90% chance of severe thunderstorms tomorrow. In a special weather statement, the NWS highlights the possibility for damaging winds in excess of 60 mph tomorrow, as well as isolated tornadoes, heavy rains and lightning.

It isn’t every day that we see the SPC issue a moderate risk for severe thunderstorms this far east. This has the potential to be dangerous tomorrow morning and early afternoon. Tune into your news programs of choice or keep watch on the NWS website for the latest information.

Ray Stevens was a comedic genius in his prime…one of the most creative musicians there ever has been or will ever be.

Boogity boogity.

And, of course, the only thing better than a Ray Stevens video is two Ray Stevens videos.

Another classic:

Okay, just one more. They say this one was inspired by an Alabama family but I don’t know if that has been confirmed.

Genius. This may be one of the most perfect country songs ever.

(“Most perfect”…is that proper English?)

After a line of thunderstorms and high straight-line winds created minor damage across the region in the early hours of Friday morning, another system — perhaps a bit more potent — appears to be shaping up for Monday.

After the cold front that pushed into the region Friday morning kept us cool throughout the day yesterday, winds have turned to the south and warm, moist air is pushing into the region from the Gulf of Mexico. That will set the stage for another warm air vs. cold air showdown as another cold air advances on the region from the northwest.

The Storm Prediction Center has much of West Tennessee under a moderate risk of severe weather tomorrow, as it appears the storms could actually move into the western portions of the state before midnight Monday morning. There is some thinking that the SPC may upgrade park of that region from Little Rock to Jackson, Tenn. to a high risk by the time tomorrow gets here.

Further east, it currently looks like it will be at least late morning on Monday before this cold front makes it to the Cumberland Plateau.

For now, it looks like the primary threat from this system will be a squall line ahead of the frontal boundary, with high straight-line winds and perhaps isolated tornadoes. This is very similar to the setup we saw on Friday morning, when a line of storms with high winds moved in, and two tornadoes were confirmed in Middle Tennessee.

Timing will be interesting as this system moves east on Monday.

If it delays its progression into Middle and East Tennessee until further into the day, it will be interesting to see what role diurnal warming plays after the sun rises Monday morning. While temperatures are progged by the weather models to not climb above 70, with dew points staying generally around 60 or below here on the Plateau, conditions won’t be too favorable for supercell structures ahead of the squall line. But if the cap were to break — referring to a layer of warm air in the mid-levels of the atmosphere — there could be an increased risk for supercell thunderstorms ahead of the main event, especially for the greater Nashville area.

While these systems generally weaken somewhat as they climb the Plateau, we all know this isn’t always the case. The SPC currently has the Plateau and most of Middle and East Tennessee under a slight risk for severe weather on Monday. The National Weather Service’s Morristown field office is currently forecasting a 90% chance of thunderstorms on Monday with winds gusting to 30 mph, and has issued a special weather statement for all of East Tennessee for a “slight risk of severe weather.” The NWS forecast calls for storms to arrive in East Tennessee by early afternoon.

While this doesn’t look like a major outbreak of severe weather for East Tennessee, it does look like it could be potentially more dangerous than the situation that unfolded Thursday night into Friday morning. Tune in to your favorite news telecasts tomorrow for updated forecasts, or watch the NWS’s website for up-to-date information.

Not surprisingly, Tennessee Athletic Director Mike Hamilton is taking a hit today from the national pundits.

Sports Illustrateds Stewart Mandel gets the party started:

But what of Hamilton? Under his watch, one of the nation’s proudest athletic programs has deteriorated into one of its most shameful. Will Tennessee chancellor Jimmy Cheek go along with the illusion that the football mess can be blamed entirely on that mercenary scoundrel Kiffin, and that reducing Pearl’s salary last fall was an adequate show of force? Or, will he do the right thing: recognize that Hamilton was ultimately Pearl’s and Kiffin’s greatest enabler; that Hamilton’s department is a textbook example of the risks of allowing splashy head coaches the freedom to act as their own freewheeling autocrats; and that ultimately Hamilton and his whole department should be replaced and rebuilt?

Mandel is to SI as Gregg Doyel  is to CBS Sports: an attack dog who serves little purpose other to inflame and generate page views. He does make a pretty compelling argument this time, though.

Then he gets too full of himself and starts blabbering:

It’s clear in the report that Tennessee exerted almost no oversight of Pearl and his staff as they continually flouted NCAA recruiting rules

* * *

And apparently Pearl didn’t learn his lesson, because on Sept. 14 — just four days after sobbing at a press conference during which he apologized for his conduct — he and assistant coach Tony Jones made impermissible contact with recruit Jordan Adams in a visit to Oak Hill Academy, according to the NCAA’s letter.

As I alluded to in the post earlier today, there are multiple examples of coaches who have lied to the NCAA being slapped with show-cause.

ESPN takes it a step further by researching the coaches who have lied to the NCAA and what their penalty has been. It’s a horrible precedent for Bruce Pearl.

The show-cause penalty is a little bit confusing. It basically states that schools have to convince the NCAA why they should be allowed to hire the coach, which amounts to a coach being blacklisted from coaching for the length of the show-cause penalty.

It’s a bit unprecedented for a coach to still be coaching when the show-cause is handed down, though. Most have resigned or are fired by the time the NCAA’s Committee on Infractions levies sanctions. In this case, Pearl hasn’t resigned and UT has made it clear they have no intention of firing him. So would a show-cause by the NCAA be toothless, since Pearl could go right on coaching at Tennesse

e?

Not in the opinion of some, who are interpreting show-cause to mean that the NCAA can effectively force a coach to be suspended or fired through a show-cause penalty…basically, they say, the NCAA can force the school to show cause why they shouldn’t be punished further for keeping the coach.

If that’s the case, then Pearl almost certainly will not survive at Tennessee if he is slapped with show-cause. And if history is our precedent, he will likely be hit with show-cause.

It’s hard to feel too much pity for Pearl because he knowingly lied to the NCAA. But if he is forced out of coaching for lying about a minor violation while coaches who have committed major violations go right on coaching (Southern Cal’s Pete Carroll, for instance, was not show-caused [even though it wouldn't have mattered since he had already bolted for the NFL] even though the things Southern Cal’s program were charged with were much, much more serious than what Tennessee’s basketball program is charged with), it says something about the NCAA’s mixed-up priorities.

As expected, the NCAA has unveiled notice of the allegations it is lodging against Tennessee’s football and basketball programs.

The notice has been released by the university.

As expected, Bruce Pearl and the basketball program are accused of 94 impermissible phone calls to recruits, impermissible contact with recruits during an unofficial visit (the infamous barbecue at Pearl’s home) and impermissible contact with a recruit at his high school.

Also as expected, Pearl has been charged by the NCAA of unethical conduct, failure to promote an atmosphere of compliance and failure to monitor.

There are no major surprises in the NCAA’s letter.

Lane Kiffin and the football program have been accused of 16 impermissible phone calls to recruits and impermissible contact with recruits. Kiffin has been charged with failure to promote an atmosphere of compliance and failure to monitor.

So, that’s that. Tennessee will appear before the NCAA Committee on Infractions on June 10-11. After that, punishment will be levied. Punishment for the football program should be quite minimal. Punishment for the basketball program will be more severe. One wouldn’t think that a postseason ban is going to be a part of that punishment, but it certainly could (and probably will) include scholarship losses. As for punishment for Pearl, who knows. A best-case scenario is that the NCAA decides the punishment levied already by the university and the SEC is sufficient. A worst-case scenario would be Pearl being suspended for up to a year by the NCAA. One would have to think that the 8-game suspension levied by the SEC and the pay cuts and off-campus recruiting ban levied by UT would cover Pearl on the failure to monitor and failure to promote an atmosphere of compliance charges. It’s that unethical conduct charge for lying that’s going to get him into further trouble, if in fact the NCAA does decide to levy further punishment against him…which seems likely.

Judging what we saw yesterday from the NCAA suspending UConn basketball coach Jim Calhoun, Kiffin could very well face some punishment from the NCAA as well. That will be the only part of all of this that will make UT fans smile, if in fact it does happen.

THE GOOD NEWS

All of that is the bad news. Here’s the good news:

• There is no “lack of institutional control” charge. That’s good news for UT fans. It’s much better news for Athletic Director Mike Hamilton. He might still not survive this, but count me among those who believe he certainly wouldn’t have survived if UT had been slapped with LOIC. It wasn’t really expected, but with all three major men’s programs under scrutiny at once (the baseball program was also part of the investigation but wasn’t charged with violations in this letter), you never know…LOIC would have meant harsher punishments for the university.

• The football program was not cited for failure to monitor. Earlier this month, new media sports guru Clay Travis reported on AOL’s Fanhouse that the program would be cited. As it turns out, only Kiffin was cited. That means the hefty punishment falls on Kiffin, not UT. That’s as it should have been, and that also provides a little more boost to Hamilton because he can say, “Hey, the guy came in here for 13 months and did these things and I had no idea what he was doing.” Will it convince boosters? Trustees? Who knows.

• The baseball program wasn’t cited. Once rumored to be the guiltiest program of all, more recent expectations were that the program would face only one secondary violation. This is good for the program, coach Todd Raleigh and, obviously, Mike Hamilton.

PEARL’S FUTURE

Talking heads continue to ask questions about Pearl’s future at Tennessee. The latest example is Indiana sports blogger Kent Sterling, who again asks the tired old question, “Is Pearl on his way out at Tennessee?”

KNS blogger Michael Silence and I had a nice, short debate a few weeks ago about whether firing Pearl remains an option for Tennessee. Michael’s position is that the fact UT and Pearl still haven’t signed a new contract for Pearl could be a sign that termination is still on the table as an option. My position is that the Hamilton and UT Chancellor Jimmy Cheek have made it very clear that Pearl is their man. By going to bat so publicly for Pearl, that could be seen as nose-thumbing by the NCAA, which would in turn come down a little more harshly on the university. Why would Hammy and Cheek make such bold and potentially inflammatory statements if firing Pearl truly is still an option?

Last week, Hamilton was quoted by the KNS as saying that UT’s intention is to keep Pearl, even if he is suspended for a full year by the NCAA. I think UT has made it clear: the only way Pearl will not be coaching

at Tennessee next year or the year after that is if he decides to go by his own free will.

But what if Mike Hamilton isn’t there? Admittedly, that could change things. If Hamilton doesn’t survive this ordeal, his replacement might not be a Pearl ally. In fact, the school’s trustees and donors could bring in an AD for the sole purpose of cleaning house.

If Pearl is hit with show-cause by the NCAA, that significantly heightens those chances. Show-cause means schools must convince the NCAA that they should be allowed to hire a coach before actually hiring him, but it’s basically a blacklist from coaching. Former Oklahoma and Indiana coach Kelvin Sampson is the most notable basketball coach to be hit with a show-cause order.

It remains very plausible that Pearl could be hit with show-cause. Consider Todd Bozeman, the former head coach at Cal. He was slapped with an 8-year show cause order in 1996 after lying to the NCAA about paying for a player’s parents to attend games. And, yesterday, the NCAA hit UConn assistant Beau Archibald with show-cause for lying during the course of that investigation.

Both men accused of lying to the NCAA, both hit with show-cause. Pearl also lied. Of course, both of those men’s transgressions were more severe. In Bozeman’s case, he paid $30,000 to a player’s parents. Pearl just hosted a kid at a barbecue. In Archibald’s case, he lied to investigators twice and didn’t come back and make it straight. Pearl lied once (as far as we know), then went back and set the record straight.

But the NCAA hit Archibald with show-cause after he had already been forced to resign from UConn. Pearl has not been forced to resign from Tennessee.

Interesting times are ahead. If Pearl is slapped with a hefty suspension plus show-cause, maybe he doesn’t survive. Anything less than that and he’ll be coaching this team as long as he wishes.

This is Rachel Cross singing Dolly’s Jolene. Rachel is a student at UT and the daughter of Plateau Electric Cooperative CEO Dave Cross

and his wife Cheryl.

Check out her other YouTube covers.