Was Wednesday’s tornado outbreak in East Tennessee enough to kick-start a serious conversation about severe weather in this part of the world?

With nearly three dozen East Tennesseans losing their lives in the storms, we’re delivered another stark reminder that tornadoes can, and do, happen here.

The reminder shouldn’t have been needed. Tornadoes don’t happen as often here as they do in places like Alabama and Mississippi, or even in Middle Tennessee, but they do happen.

Too often, we’re caught off-guard by the weather. That shouldn’t have been the case this week. Technology gave us ample warning — days, even — that an outbreak of severe weather was pending on Wednesday. The National Weather Service in East Tennessee warned for several days that “strong, long-tracked tornadoes” were possible Wednesday afternoon.

Yet, there were some people as late as Tuesday evening who were unaware that severe weather was pending the following day. Part of that may be the fault of the news media, which took a rather nonchalant approach to the situation considering the seriousness of it. Perhaps this was because tornado outbreaks had been modeled before and did not come to fruition. Perhaps a little bit of it was an “it won’t happen here” attitude. You can hardly blame them; it’s human nature to want to err on the side of caution.

But models clearly showed days in advance that some parts of the South were in for a devastating outbreak of severe weather on Wednesday, and if that wasn’t relayed to an unsuspecting public, for whatever reason, then a better job could have been done.

There were media outlets that did fully address the situation, however, and the warnings simply weren’t heeded. Again, because of an apparent “it won’t happen here” attitude.

That isn’t to say that everyone was ignoring the warnings. Many weren’t. Schools closed; people took precautions.

But I’ll say this: if those monstrous tornadoes that tracked through Alabama had touched down in similarly populated areas in Tennessee and stayed on the ground for similar distances as they did in Alabama, the death toll would have been much higher in Tennessee than it was in Alabama, where they take tornadoes seriously. By the same token, if the tornadoes in Tennessee had touched down in similarly populated areas of Alabama, the death toll would have likely been lower.

That isn’t to make light of what happened in Tennessee. One of the Bradley County storms has already been rated an EF-4 tornado by the National Weather Service. That’s a powerful twister that’s going to cause death and destruction anywhere it touches down.

I said that to say this: we don’t take severe weather seriously enough in East Tennessee. Very few communities on this end of the state have tornado sirens. In Hamilton County, power was knocked out by the first round of storms Wednesday evening, meaning anyone who didn’t have a battery-powered radio or a web-enabled phone couldn’t have known that tornadoes were bearing down on their communities. If the towns had tornado sirens, there would have been a way to warn folks of what was coming.

Another problem is the National Weather Service’s warning system. Today’s technology allows meteorologists to spot rotation by Doppler radar; in other words, seeing a tornado before it becomes a tornado. That’s both a blessing and a curse. It’s a blessing, obviously, because it provides better warning. Before the days of Doppler, meteorologists had to wait until boots on the ground witnessed a funnel cloud before issuing a warning. And, even then, many of those reports were unreliable if they came from anyone other than trained spotters. But it’s also a curse, because each of those rotating cells are tornado-warned by the NWS, and most of them never drop a tornado. The numerous tornado warning issued creates complacency among citizens. I wonder if there was anyone killed in Wednesday’s storms because they heard the tornado warning and assumed it was just like warnings before it that didn’t result in a tornado, and didn’t take proper shelter as a result?

Mostly, though, it goes back to the attitude that it “can’t happen here.” The hilly terrain of East Tennessee, we tend to believe, protects us. Certainly tornadoes happen less frequently here — and when they do happen they’re on the ground for lesser distances — because of the terrain. But Bradley County and Greene County are in the foothills of the Appalachians. And those were the two hardest-hit counties in Wednesday’s outbreak.

We’ve had examples before of how tornadoes can and do impact these hilly communities of East Tennessee. But this is perhaps the grimmest example yet. Hopefully, we will not forget this day the next time severe weather threatens East Tennessee.

NOTABLE EXAMPLES OF TORNADOES IN EAST TENNESSEE

• May 2, 1929: Four people were killed and nearly two dozen injured in tornadoes in Washington and Unicoi counties.

• March 21, 1932: Two people were killed and 500 injured in a F4 tornado in Marion County.

• March 14, 1933: An F4 tornado touched down in Campbell County, killing 12 and injuring 133. It continued into Claiborne County, killing 12 more and injuring 162. A separate, F2 tornado the same day killed one and injured 12 in Claiborne County. Two people were killed and 35 injured when an F2 tornado touched down in Hancock County. Three people were killed and 35 injured in Hawkins County. 11 were killed and 200 injured in Sullivan County.

• May 2, 1953: Three people were killed and eight injured when an F4 tornado touched down in Meigs County.

• April 3, 1974: Two people were killed and 21 injured in Knox County, and one was killed in Polk County, as a massive tornado outbreak scourged the eastern U.S. Three were killed and 100 injured in separate twisters in Bradley County. The injured included 26 in Scott County in two separate tornadoes, two in Blount County, six in Morgan County, two in Hamilton County.

• Feb. 21, 1993: Just days before the Blizzard of ’93 crippled East Tennessee, a severe weather outbreak pulverized the region. In Loudon County, a tornado touched down and killed one while injuring 55.

• Nov. 10, 2002: A deadly tornado outbreak across Tennessee included two tornadoes in Morgan County. The second resulted in seven fatalities and 22 injuries in the Mossy Grove community.

For those in Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia and East Tennessee who escaped Wednesday’s storms with their lives and their families, the sun came up today.

And it’s a brilliant Thursday afternoon. Looking outside today, it’s hard to believe the weather was so bad yesterday. As someone on another site said earlier, “People are rolling up their sleeves and going to work. There are no victims; there are survivors.”

Craig Morgan’s song seems appropriate:

The full impact of yesterday’s tornadoes is just starting to be realized this morning.

It was a rough day in East Tennessee. Two separate tornadoes touched down in Bradley County (near Chattanooga). Media reports are of 300 homes destroyed and five killed there. There were other fatalities in East Tennessee as well, including five in Greene County, which was very hard hit.

In Alabama, it’s almost hard to believe until you start looking at the videos of those monstrous tornadoes that ripped through there, but 128 were killed.

In all, at least 178 people died in yesterday’s storms.

Folks in much of Middle Tennessee and here on the northern Plateau should be counting their blessings this morning. The stuff that Bradley and Greene counties saw is what looked like would come through here for many days. It didn’t happen, and for that we were fortunate.

It was obvious for a long time, though, that yesterday would be a very bad day. Looking back, we first talked about the potential for a large tornado outbreak on April 21, six days in advance. At that time, it was becoming clear that this would be a catastrophic situation. Weather models can be fickle things, but on most of the major weather events, they seem to lock on to a solution days in advance. I’ve been dabbling in the various components of winter storms and severe storms for six years now, feeding my fledgling weather hobby, and I still don’t know much, but looking at the data coming in on each model run Monday and Tuesday for yesterday’s impending weather was the first time I’ve ever been truly scared for what the models were showing for Tennessee. For folks cleaning up trees and repairing roofs in Middle Tennessee and along the northern Cumberland Plateau this morning, it’s bad enough. But you look at Alabama and at Bradley and Greene counties and you know that it could’ve been so much worse.

UPDATE (8:27 p.m. EDT): A couple of video clips from that massive tornado in Tuscaloosa. This one is shot as the tornado approaches the University of Alabama campus (note the stadium in the shot). This one is the aftermath at Midtown.

UPDATE (6:53 p.m. EDT): A lot of rain, some cloud to ground lightning and straight-line bursts of wind are about the extent of the storms that have impacted the northern Cumberland Plateau so far. But what is happening to our south is an example of why folks who wish for this kind of weather are nuts. What’s happening in Alabama is simply amazing. Tuscaloosa has already taken a direct hit from a huge tornado — more than a half-mile wide at one point — and Birmingham is in the path of a large tornado.

This evening has certainly turned into the evening that it has looked like it could be for several days now. It happened just a little further south than was expected, but all models pointed towards a devastating day of tornadic weather for some part of the South and that is exactly what is unfolding this evening in Alabama. It certainly hasn’t been a walk in the park here in Tennessee. There are been multiple reports of tornadoes on the ground, mostly in Middle Tennessee.

UPDATE (5:02 p.m. EDT): Things have been relatively quiet in Tennessee this afternoon, with much of the tornado activity relegated to Alabama. Things are starting to pick up at quitting time, however. There are four tornadic supercells marching northeast in various parts of the state right now, and a number of severe storms that have shown minor signs of rotation.

Current storms popping tornado markers are southwest of Maryville, near Spencer, near Woodbury and just east of Hohenwald.

UPDATE (10:22 a.m. EDT): The first round of storms produced severe thunderstorm warnings and tornado warnings for the northern plateau. A funnel cloud was reported to law enforcement over the Big South Fork of the Cumberland River, but that was never confirmed. Several roads in Scott and Fentress counties were closed due to fallen trees. A tree on a home in south Oneida resulted in no injuries to those inside. Power is out in part of Oneida and surrounding communities due to downed power lines.

How bad things will get later this afternoon remains to be seen for us in northern Tennessee. The latest modeling trends continue to shift the worst of the activity to our south. Clearly, though, this could be a very bad afternoon for folks in northern Alabama and southern Tennessee.

The original post follows…

It has already been an active morning across Middle Tennessee, as the first round of today’s storms passes through the region.

Tornadoes have been reported in several areas, including the Murfreesboro area, with lots of damage and power outages but no injuries being reported so far. This is from a line of storms that is about to impact the Cumberland Plateau. This line is expected to weaken a bit, but it is still producing some tornado warnings for now.

The possible good news is that some model data suggest that once this area of rain and storms has passed, the atmosphere will not be able to recover sufficiently this far north for the discrete activity that will develop this afternoon to be as bad as it could have otherwise been.

To that end, the Storm Prediction Center has left much of Tennessee in a moderate risk area for severe weather. As anticipated, a high risk area has been issued, but it’s relegated to a smaller area further south than I anticipated (including northern Alabama and extending northward into southern Tennessee), probably due to some of the latest modeling trends. Some models don’t look hardly as bad for the northern two-thirds of Tennessee as they looked yesterday, though they still look plenty bad enough and it’s still a dangerous situation.

In a special weather statement, the NWS’s Morristown field office spells out the threat for East Tennessee once this morning’s convection and storms clear out and the threat turns to a discrete storm mode this afternoon:

THESE SUPERCELL STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS OR LARGER…AND ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG AND LONG-LIVED TORNADOES.

Later, the storm threat will turn linear again as a line of storms approaches the area with the cold front. The tornado threat will be reduced at that time (though tornadoes are still possible), while the primary threats will be damage from high winds, large hail, and heavy rain.

If the general reaction of folks around here is any indication, not many are taking tomorrow’s threat of severe weather seriously. Which is unfortunate, because it has the potential to be downright hairy for a lot of folks in Tennessee.

Much of Tennessee is still under a moderate risk for severe weather tomorrow. Part of the state will be upgraded to a high risk by tomorrow morning. If I was guessing, I would say the Storm Prediction Center will place a high risk over Middle Tennessee down into central Alabama and perhaps extending northward into Kentucky. I’m not so sure that the high risk area will include the Cumberland Plateau and points east, but the bottom line is that there is a significant risk for a major outbreak of severe weather tomorrow, including widespread damaging high winds, large and damaging hail, and tornadoes. Anyone who reads this blog knows that I don’t like to needlessly hype the potential for dangerous weather. But this is a serious threat and I fear some people are going to be caught unprepared if the worst does indeed pan out.

In this storm system’s bullseye, Middle Tennessee, the threat for a major outbreak of severe weather is probably as great as any we’ve seen in quite some time.

Frankly, this has the potential to rival the Super Tuesday tornadic outbreak back in February 2008.

Of course, potential is just that. There are a number of things that could happen to temper the severe threat, and hopefully it will.

Things are quite calm across the northern Plateau this evening, but a wind advisory has already been issued. Sustained winds are expected to increase to 30 mph by tomorrow, with wind gusts approaching 50 mph.

Rain may move into the area by tomorrow morning with the first round of storms, but things should really deteriorate after lunch tomorrow. The bullsye will be Middle Tennessee, but there is no guarantee that we won’t see tornadoes along the Plateau and further into East Tennessee. At the very least, it will be surprising if we make it through tomorrow afternoon without some reports of thunderstorm-induced wind damage in our neck of the woods.

NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center has issued a high risk of severe weather over the Ark-La-Tex region today, with a moderate risk extending northeast to include all of West Tennessee. This is the same threat that will shift east to Middle and parts of East Tennessee down into Alabama tomorrow. For now, that threat is still classified as being a moderate threat, but it will likely be upgraded to a high risk by the time tomorrow morning gets here, as all indications continue to point towards a rather ominous day of severe weather from southern Kentucky into central Alabama.

Today’s risk:

Tomorrow’s risk:

Today’s main rain event has reached the Cumberland Plateau at 11:30 a.m. (radar) and, as was the case with yesterday morning’s mesoscale convective system (MCS), it’s weakening dramatically from what it was to our west. Some locations in West Tennessee received more than 2.5 inches of rain in less than an hour as this system moved through this morning. We won’t see anything close to that here in East Tennessee.

The meteorologists at NOAA’ s Hydrometeorological Prediction Center are

still predicting some rather impressive rainfall over the next couple of days. This map is valid through 7 a.m. Tuesday morning. You can see the way the rain totals dramatically decrease from west to east:

The rain so far from this multi-day system has been very unimpressive along the Cumberland Plateau and points east. Obviously we’ll get our fair share tomorrow, but outside the Mississippi River Valley, where record flooding is possible, the biggest issue with this system will clearly be the severe weather aspect we see tomorrow.

Behind this decaying MCS about to impact the Cumberland Plateau, the sun has already returned in West Tennessee. That should aid in further destabilizing the atmosphere and set the stage for the next round of severe weather, which could actually begin there this afternoon.

Here, the severe threat tomorrow will depend on a number of factors, including how much convection we see that could limit the formation of discrete storm cells (it isn’t modeled to be much), how much capping we see in the atmosphere to prevent updrafts from forming (it isn’t modeled to be much) and exactly how much instability we see in the atmosphere…which might actually be the biggest question at this point.

There will be a time tomorrow afternoon or evening, as the actual frontal boundary approaches, when the storms turn linear in nature. (A squall line ahead of an approaching front is the best example of linear storms.) Within those storms, rotation and tornadoes is still possible, and of course high winds and large hail are very possible. But the tornadic threat is reduced at that time. It is the period of time preceding this, when the activity is discrete rather than linear, that we can see cells form that are very capable of dropping tornadoes.

Exactly where the highest threat sets up remains to be seen. History says that the threat will be diminished somewhat along the Cumberland Plateau and in the Valley to the east, while it is higher to our west in Middle Tennessee and to the south into Alabama. But we all know tornadoes and severe storms are possible anywhere.

Either way, tomorrow is certainly going to be a day for keeping your favorite news station and meteorologist tuned in, and an eye to the sky. If you don’t own a weather radio for your home, it can’t hurt to pick one up.

As many as seven fatalities are being reported in connection with yesterday’s rough weather in Arkansas, including two in a powerful tornado that touched down in the town of Vilonia.

A total of 38 tornadoes were reported yesterday from Texas to Tennessee, though it remains to be seen how many will be confirmed. In Tennessee, there were tornado reports in Crockett and Dickson counties, and two in Shelby County. Widespread damage was also reported in Carroll County.

Severe weather will continue today, with the primary focus being again in the same area as yesterday – part of Arkansas, extending east into West Tennessee. Severe weather is expected to stay west of our region today.

Tomorrow the threat will shift eastward. Middle Tennessee and part of East Tennessee remain under a moderate risk for severe weather tomorrow. That may very well be upgraded to a high risk by the time tomorrow arrives. The tornado signals are ominous for Middle Tennessee into northern Alabama.

That threat does extend east across the Cumberland Plateau as well. Here is what the Storm Prediction Center currently has to say:

STRONG SLY SURFACE FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASING TO 80 TO 100 KT FROM THE SW AT MID LEVELS WILL PROVIDE SHEAR HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR VERY INTENSE/LONG-LIVED ROTATING UPDRAFTS. THIS — COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT…APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF SIGNIFICANT LONG-TRACK TORNADOES AND — DEPENDING UPON STORM MODE — THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD/VERY DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL. ATTM…GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS TN/KY/NRN MS AND NRN AND CENTRAL AL…WHILE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE — ALONG WITH TORNADO THREAT — WILL EXTEND NNEWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

Back to our west, this week’s wild weather is getting cranked up. There are multiple reports of tornadoes across Arkansas this evening, including what might have been a violent tornado in the town of Vilonia.

There are reports of a one-half mile wide path of damage from that twister.

This is coming from discrete cells that have developed ahead of the first of two cold fronts that will impact the region through Wednesday evening. That line of storms is bearing down on Memphis, which remains under a moderate risk of severe weather today and tomorrow. It may weaken before it gets there.

The severe weather should stay west tomorrow, but all of Middle Tennessee and part of East Tennessee is under a moderate risk of severe weather on Wednesday…with a 45% chance of severe weather (damaging winds, large hail or tornadoes) within 25 miles of any particular spot, according to the Storm Prediction Center.

UPDATE: That tornado touchdown in Vilonia, Ark., is looking bad. There have been unconfirmed reports of injuries at a church. And there’s this report: “Scanner reports (NOTE: Often unreliable) indicate there’s not much left in Vilonia…very sobering tone from dispatchers…”

More photos…

UPDATE (10:09 a.m. EDT): The remnants of a mesoscale convective system (MCS) are pushing across Middle Tennessee after unloading on West Tennessee earlier this morning. A second MCS has gotten organized back in Arkansas. (Radar.) These strong (but sub-severe) storms should help limit any severe activity in West Tennessee today. For now, the Storm Prediction Center has the greater Memphis area in a moderate risk for severe weather today, including a 15% risk for tornadoes. But that may well be trimmed back as the morning progresses. As for the remnants of that MCS, it may impact the Cumberland Plateau later on today, but should continue to weaken as it progresses across Middle Tennessee.

The original post follows…

The National Weather Service’s Morristown field office is sounding the alarm on the severe weather potential for East Tennessee this week. In its hazardous weather outlook, the NWS highlights the potential for damaging winds and large hail the next couple of days, then uses some stern wording you’ll rarely see from the Morristown field office regarding severe weather potential on Wednesday:

A STRONG COLD FRONT WITH A STRONG WIND FIELD WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY…BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS…VERY LARGE HAIL…HEAVY RAINFALL…AND TORNADOES. IN ADDITION…THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG AND LONG-TRACKED TORNADOES.

The threat of wicked weather this week extends from the Mississippi to the Appalachians. On the western side, flooding has become a major concern.

The NWS office in Paducah, Ky., is sounding the alarm on the potential for “catastrophic” flash flooding and river flooding, calling it a “particularly dangerous situation.”

Flood watches are already posted in Tennessee as far east as the western Cumberland Plateau. In a hydrologic outlook, the NWS in Nashville states the potential for 5 to 8 inches of rain for Middle Tennessee through Wednesday.

The Storm Prediction Center has a moderate risk of severe weather highlighted each of the next three days. Today and tomorrow, the moderate risk is relegated to West Tennessee. But on Wednesday, it shifts east to include all of Middle and part of East Tennessee:

The SPC has this to say about the threat on Wednesday:

THE MOST FAVORABLE COMBINATION OF RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE…STRONG SHEAR…FOCUSED LARGE-SCALE ASCENT…AND ANTICIPATED LACK OF APPRECIABLE PRIOR CONVECTION INDICATES A RELATIVELY HIGH-CONFIDENCE AREA OF CONCENTRATED SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR POTENTIALLY STRONG TORNADOES AND WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE CENTERED OVER THE MID SOUTH/TN VALLEY REGION.

The good news for folks here along the northern Cumberland Plateau — if wishing bad weather on others can be called good news — is that the heaviest rain still looks like it will remain to our west, while the primary severe weather threat on Wednesday may actually be relegated to the southern half of Tennessee, depending on how things shape up between now and then. Regardless, there will be the threat of severe weather for everyone in Tennessee over the next several days, and that will include tornadoes as well as the more commonly seen damaging winds and large hail. This is shaping up to be obviously the biggest severe weather threat for East Tennessee so far this season, and maybe as great as anything we’ve seen the past couple of springs.