When former 4-star recruit Alex Bullard’s father died, the Notre Dame player wanted to transfer to Tennessee. It made sense for the Nashville native, as he could be closer to his remaining family. Notre Dame released the sophomore from his scholarship, which freed him to make the move to Tennessee this year.

When basketball star Tyler Smith saw his father, a McMinnville resident, become ill with cancer, he wanted to transfer to be closer to his family. Iowa released him from his scholarship, which freed him to make the move to Tennessee.

Turnabout, it appears, is not fair play.

DeAnthony Arnett, a standout wide receiver who signed with the Vols last winter and emerged as one of the team’s leading receivers as a true freshman after Justin Hunter was lost to injury, has requested to be released from his scholarship to be closer to his family in his home state of Michigan. Arnett’s father is seriously ill, having suffered two heart attacks and is on kidney dialysis.

Tennessee coach Derek Dooley said no.

Well, not really. But he might as well have. Dooley said he will release Arnett — who became the No. 2 receiver, behind Da’Rick Rogers, after Hunter’s injury — but only to a MAC school . . . not to Michigan or Michigan State, the two in-state Big Ten schools. Eastern Michigan, Central Michigan and Western Michigan are all in the MAC.

If Dooley doesn’t release him, Arnett will have to pay his own way to attend either Michigan or Michigan State. He has told reporters that his family’s financial situation doesn’t make that possible.

Dooley made headlines last year when he refused to release heralded running back Bryce Brown from his scholarship. He also refused to release Aaron Douglas. In each case, Dooley seemed a little petty, but there was a little justification each time. It was widely speculated that Brown wanted to rejoin Lane Kiffin (who recruited him at UT) in southern California, while Douglas simply quit the team.

This is worse than petty. This stinks.

A Tennessee spokesperson told ESPN that the school has a policy of not allowing unconditional releases for players to transfer to schools that Tennessee competes against on the field or on the recruiting trail.

Ironically, Tennessee plays neither Michigan or Michigan State in the years ahead (and last played Michigan in a Phillip Fulmer-era bowl game), but you don’t have to look further than next season to find a MAC team (Akron) on the schedule. Three other MAC teams have faced Tennessee the past four seasons.

So are you seriously going to toe that line and deny a kid whose father may very well not have long to live the chance to move back home, instead of staying in school thousands of miles away? Sure, he can go back and play for a lesser FBS school, but should a BCS-caliber player be forced to play below the BCS level because a coach wants to play hardball?

The Saginaw (Michigan) news calls Dooley heartless. It’s hard to disagree.

Sure, one can question Arnett’s true motives. After all, his father was ill when he chose Tennessee in the first place, passing up offers from plenty of schools much closer to home. And wide receivers coach Charlie Baggett — who recruited Arnett to Tennessee — recently resigned from the UT staff.

But those things are not going to matter in the court of public opinion. There is no way that Dooley will come out of this not looking like a complete jerk for refusing to release a kid whose father is seriously ill.

(And, yes, that’s the way the media and pundits will see it and report it.) There’s no way the university’s public image won’t suffer as a result.

As Dooley’s short tenure at Tennessee has unfolded, there have been increasing signals that he is in over his head. This is just another one of those signals.

And I like the guy. I’ve said many times that I wanted him to coach at UT before UT ever hired him, and I still want him to coach at UT even if I am doubting his ability to get the job done, because I like the way he handles himself and his business.

But my homerism goes on the shelf on this one. I don’t like the way he’s handling this. And if he sticks to his guns, I’m going to like him a little bit less.

There’s a right way and a wrong way to do business. This is the wrong way.

On Tuesday, rhetoric will finally be put to the test as Republican presidential contenders stop haranguing voters long enough for Iowans to have their say — the first in the 2012 presidential nomination process — at the state’s caucuses.

Who will it be? Mitt Romney, the former Massachusetts governor who has been a consistent frontrunner in this race but whose conservative credentials will almost certainly be called into question as the primary season unfolds — especially as the long road to the nomination winds through socially-conscious Southern states? Ron Paul, the long-shot Texas Congressman who inspires legions of Internet followers but who is questionable on foreign policy? Newt Gingrich, the former House Speaker who has rebounded with a vengeance after his campaign was left for dead?

It might be easier to say who it won’t be: it won’t be Texas Governor Rick Perry, and it won’ t be Minneso

ta Congresswoman Michele Bachmann.

Aside from that, all bets are off. Everyone who is left in the GOP field has an honest-to-goodness shot at winning Iowa and gaining a vital leg up in the early going . . . even former Pennsylvania Congressman Rick Santorum, which is an excellent example of just how wide open this race is.

Bachmann became an instant darling in conservatives’ eyes after winning the Ames straw poll last summer. But it isn’t only the weather that has cooled in the Hawkeye State as Bachmann makes her way back. She’s likely to get a cool reception from the state’s GOP voters, and it’s largely her verbal gaffes — and the undue criticism of the mainstream media that is not now and may not ever be ready to accept the reality of a female presidential candidate.

Perry’s campaign for president has been much like that of a bottle rocket at a Fourth of July fireworks display. He never even made it out of the starting gate before collapsing. (Because one bad analogy isn’t enough for a single paragraph . . .)

That leaves four main candidates for Iowa. Let’s handicap them:

Mitt Romney

Why he wins: He has been the most resilient of the Republican candidates. As other candidates have surged to the front of the pack, only to fizzle and fade, Romney has been a mainstay. He’s also the only candidate besides Newt Gingrich — who has been treated with kid gloves by the media — who hasn’t had skeletons dragged out of his closet, which speaks volumes about his viability as a candidate, since he is the last guy Democrats want to see oppose Barack Obama.

Why he loses:  His credentials as an honest-to-goodness conservative are weak. He had a terrible record as governor of Massachusetts. Someone commented earlier that Iowans will never support a candidate who has been twice divorced (Newt Gingrich). My reply was that protestant Iowa voters just might support a twice divorced Southern Baptist over a Mormon. Yes, religious affiliation does matter.

Why he’s appealing: I still can’t help but draw the parallels between Romney and Ronald Reagan. Both were Republican governors of liberal states. Both ran for president and lost, only to come back four years later as a front-runner. Reagan defeated Jimmy Carter in 1980, and Barack Obama is compared to no one more than he is compared to Carter. Like Romney, Reagan had a conservative record that was less than stellar. And although Reagan is remembered today as a conservative’s conservative, many folks forget that he pushed through a tax hike, rather enjoyed spending the people’s money, and supported gun control initiatives. (Which doesn’t stand in the way of the fact that he was a darned good president . . . one of America’s best ever.) Where the similarities stop is on their appeal. Reagan was very likable, and an excellent orator and speech writer. Romney still has trouble getting his message across.

What an Iowa win would mean for him: A win in Iowa would probably make Romney unbeatable in the Republican field. The Southern states would still present a potential stumbling block, but if he wins in Iowa he’s going to build some momentum that is going to be hard to stand in the way of.

Newt Gingrich

Why he wins: For whatever reason, Newt Gingrich is a rising star (again) in the Republican Party. He has a message that has resonated with conservatives and, much like the fabled tortoise, has plodded along in this campaign even when it seemed that he was so far out of the race that he would never catch up. His timing couldn’t have been better. As this roller coaster of a campaign season ascends its final climb, it is Gingrich who is at the front of the pack.

Why he loses: When push comes to shove, most Republicans haven’t forgotten the ’90s. Gingrich was a star of Republicans’ efforts to topple a Democrat stronghold on Washington, but he almost immediately fell from his party’s good graces and may have single-handedly cost the GOP a chance to reclaim the White House in 1996. Romney and Ron Paul have whittled away hard at Gingrich’s claim that he is a reformed conservative, and it’s no surprise that his steeply climbing poll numbers have reflected the negative message of his opponents.

Why he’s appealing: Is he?

What an Iowa win would mean for him: A win on the first campaign trail stop legitimizes Gingrich’s bid for the Republican nomination. He’s still likely to struggle in certain states, but that would be okay . . . because he would have a lot of momentum going into South Carolina and Florida later in January. If he were to win both of those, he’s suddenly the front-runner as the calendar flips to February.

Ron Paul

Why he wins: Ron Paul is the closest thing to a cult father that major American politics has seen in at least a generation. Oh, his legion may not be quite as large as Barack Obama’s, or maybe even as large as tea party favorite Michele Bachmann’s. But his followers are as loyal as any you’ll ever find. And every poll of late suggests that there’s a lot of them in Iowa. In addition to isolationist Republicans, Paul will pull the support of independents and Democrats — perhaps more of the latter than any other candidate in the field, and both kinds will cast their preference in Iowa.

Why he loses: As much as he endears himself to his supporters, Paul is still a quirky old guy who few people would seriously consider as a legitimate presidential contender. He’s a libertarian, and libertarians can be Republicans, of course. But it’s going to be much harder for a quirky libertarian to win the GOP nod than for a quirky libertarian to emerge victorious.

Why he’s appealing: Ron Paul isn’t your ordinary politician, and that says plenty about him. For all his faults on foreign policy, he’s the one candidate who truly gets it on the necessity of making America great again.

What an Iowa win would mean for him: Up until now, Paul hasn’t been viewed as a legitimate candidate. If he could find a way to pull off a stunning upset in Iowa, that would change. Ultimately, it likely won’t earn him the nomination. But it can’t hurt.

Rick Santorum

Why he wins: A dark horse candidate if there ever was one, Rick Santorum has been on my “bottom-rung guys to watch out for list” for months. Okay, he would have been on that list if I had one. Santorum has worked extremely hard in Iowa — probably moreso than any other candidate, and to the point of moving his family there — and has steadfastly maintained that he will win the state.

Why he loses: Quick, find 10 people who have heard of Rick Santorum.

Why he’s appealing: When it comes to social conservatism, no one has the credentials of Santorum. He’s one of the best-spoken of the bunch, and just might be one of the most intelligent.

What an Iowa win would mean for him: Conventional wisdom says that, like Ron Paul, Santorum probably can’t win the nomination, even with a win in Iowa. A good parallel is Mike Huckabee in 2008. Huckabee’s social conservatism delivered Iowa for him, but he never really capitalized after that. Huckabee and Santorum are much alike. On the other hand, if Santorum can find a way to win Iowa, he’ll suddenly explode into the limelight as a candidate, and would probably fare very well among evangelical voters in the South, much the same way Huckabee did. If Santorum can manage to divide and conquer, and become the social conservatives’ alternative to Romney, as Huckabee did in ’08, he’ll have one huge benefit that Huckabee didn’t have back  then: there’s no John McCain in this race to pull the independent and moderate Republican vote in a race where social conservatives are squaring off against fiscal conservatives.

My gut feeling? Ron Paul wins Iowa, but it’s ultimately a win for Mitt Romney. The Republican establishment is still more or less toying with these guys right now. Ron Paul is the anti-nominee for the establishment. If it looks like he’s becoming a serious frontrunner, the Republican establishment will coalesce around Romney, simply because he’s the guy who is “supposed” to be the frontrunner. So if Romney can’t win Iowa, it’s much better for him that Paul win than that Gingrich win. But the latter probably isn’t going to happen. Gingrich has had his moment in the spotlight — like Bachmann and Herman Cain and the others before him — and his star is already fading. As for Santorum, while he’s been polling in the single digits from the very beginning, I wouldn’t count him out. And if he finds a way to win Iowa, I think Santorum will probably wind up being the Republican nominee, which would make him one of  the most unlikely political victors in quite some  time.

I posted yesterday about the European weather guidance model (the ECMWF) and its depiction of a winter storm impacting the Southeast early next week.

As I said at the time, the chances for a winter storm with this setup are slim to none, all things considered, and more and more modeling data is agreeing with that.

And even though I still think this cooldown will be short lived, merely a blip in the pattern we’ve been stuck in since late autumn, I think the cold air that is coming next week warrants a second glance . . . if for no reason other than it could be the coldest weather of the season thus far.

The domestic GFS model is still coming around, and doesn’t show anything too remarkable right now. The GFS model output statistics this afternoon printed high temps of 37 degrees on the northern Cumberland Plateau Monday and Tuesday, warming back into the 40s by Wednesday. Overnight lows were as low as 20 Tuesday morning.

The Euro model, meanwhile, continues to show some pretty impressive cold air. If it’s correct, we may not get above freezing for at least one day, which would easily be the first time that has happened this season.

But, again, the overall theme right now is that this is probably going to be an exception to the ongoing pattern rather than an actual pattern-changer. And despite what the occasional model run is showing, wintry weather is unlikely simply because of the location of the trough that will set up over the eastern U.S. to deliver these cold temps.

With that said, models are showing some additional indications that a true pattern-changer may be looming on the horizon. But I’ll have to see it to believe it at this point. There’s still no sign of true blocking in the NAO and PNA regions — in the northern Atlantic and in the Pacific. Those things need to happen in order for a cold pattern to truly lock into place in our neck of the woods. The North Atlantic Oscillation may become more favorable as we head towards mid January, and some models are beginning to show the Arctic Oscillation go from extreme positive territory to negative territory, but the AO, at least, is still very much in doubt. And if PNA ridging were to break down, that would be a crippling blow for the chances of any significant wintry weather in the South anytime soon — unless the NAO/AO combination were to override what’s happening in the Pacific (as was the case for much of last winter).

Perhaps more signals of a change in the overall pattern will emerge in the days ahead. For now, I think the safest bet is that the zonal pattern will continue, with mild and wet conditions in the South. On the other hand, there are some signs that the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) may be on the brink of becoming more progressive, which could be the first sign that a pattern change is coming.

The MJO is a measure of an omnipresent tropical disturbance that rotates through the tropics. Its location helps predict weather in much of the world. For the past couple of months, it has been stubbornly stuck in Zones 5 and 6 — the Maritime and the western Pacific. On average, when the MJO is in those zones, we see warmer than average temps in much of the U.S., and this fall and winter have certainly been no exception. But now many models are wanting to progress the MJO towards Zones 1 and 2 — towards Africa and the Indian Ocean. On average, when the MJO is in those zones, we see cooler than average temps in much of the U.S. So if one were looking for signs of a pattern change on the horizon, that might be something to keep in mind.

For now, though, it’s enough to know that even if mild temperatures will continue to be the general theme as January rolls in, we are looking at some cold weather early next week . . . cold weather that could very well bring nighttime temps in the upper teens to the northern Cumberland Plateau.

This kid had more backbone than most people twice her age:

Every so often somewhere in the world, news reports surface of mothers who practice the kind of selfless sacrifice that should be encouragement for anyone — a willingness to sacrifice their own life for their unborn child.

In this latest case, Jenni Lake recently gave birth to a baby boy just one month before she turned 18. When lake found out she was pregnant, she decided to forgo treatment for tumors on her brain and spine so she could carry the baby to term and give birth.

Diana Phillips, Jenni’s mother, said that, when Lake was admitted to the hospital as she told the nurse, ‘I’m done, I did what I was supposed to.

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My baby is going to get here safe.’” The nurse would later repeat the girl’s words to comfort her family when Lake passed away 12 days after the baby was born.

My column this week:

It wasn’t surprising that some were quick to ridicule Scott County Sheriff Mike Cross when he helped friend and Scott County Commissioner David “Blue” Day establish a prayer rally as a solution to Scott County’s war on methamphetamine and other illegal drugs.

When Cross told reporters that “Washington or Nashville is not the answer; God is the answer,” the Freedom From Religion Foundation, a Wisconsin-based organization with a mission statement to “protect the constitutional principle of the separation of state and church,” published the quote on its blog, under the headline, “Said what?!?”

Much of the flack came from outside Scott County. You don’t have to leave the Bible Belt to find a noticeable anti-Christian sentiment, but you typically have to leave the rural communities. As media outlets in the Knoxville market and beyond picked up the story of the local prayer effort, commentators — most of them anonymous — weren’t shy with their thoughts. One said that law enforcement should be relying on trained techniques, rather than a “mythical god” to combat the drug problem. Another said, “How foolish for a sheriff to believe that prayer is the answer to crime.”

Daniel Silliman, a professor of American Religion and Culture at Germany’s University of Heidelberg, insinuated that the prayer meeting may have violated the constitution and implied that it is naive to think drug busts are the result of divine help rather than the effectiveness of crime-fighting initiatives.

Funny thing is, naivete and foolishness aside, the prayers appeared to work. In what became the top local news story of 2011, Sheriff Cross and Commissioner Day helped organize a prayer effort on the old courthouse mall in Huntsville in April, weeks after several Scott Countians died in unintentional drug overdoses.

A single prayer meeting turned into a monthly event, and what followed was a rash of drug busts. In all, more than 30 meth labs were busted. Dozens were arrested, some more than once. The prayer effort and subsequent results in the drug war generated regional and national headlines, and spurred other East Tennessee counties to begin prayer efforts of their own.

Mike Cross isn’t the first Scott County sheriff to take the fight to makers and distributors of illegal drugs with both barrels. But, for whatever reason, the first full year of his administration saw more meth lab busts than Scott County has ever seen in a single year before.

Maybe that’s because more people are “cooking” meth than ever before. Maybe it’s because of updated methods of combatting the drug.

But Cross will be the first to tell you that he and his administration can’t necessarily take credit for all the busts.

“They’re just falling into our lap,” Cross said in June, on the heels of a rash of meth busts by his drug agents. When asked if the prayer efforts were responsible, Cross said, “If it isn’t prayer, I don’t know what it is.”

Indeed, meth labs started to turn up fast and furious as summer unfolded on the Cumberland Plateau. Officers serving papers stumbled across meth labs. Officers stopping speeding cars for minor citations stumbled across meth labs.

If you put a number to it, Scott County’s meth lab busts increased 600% by summer’s end in August.

After a temporary reprieve in early autumn, meth lab busts spiked again by late October, and the year ends with the busts of three labs in less than two weeks.

What happened in Scott County, Tennessee in 2011 isn’t going to sway many people. Those who believe in the power of prayer will thank God for His help in keeping drugs out of the hands of their children. Those who don’t will chalk it up to coincidence, saying that correlation and causation are mutually exclusive terms.

But one thing is for sure: as the year ends, those outside-looking-in criticisms of a sheriff who had the audacity to believe that God would help him fight crime seem to have waned.

They say there’s power in numbers. In this case, mere statistics have the power to silence.

University of Tennessee fans far and wide have one simple message for the Year 2011: Don’t let the door hit ya on the way out.

From a sports perspective, one would probably have to study long and hard to find a year that was worse than 2011 for the orange-clad faithful. Maybe 1952, when mounting health problems forced Robert Neyland to leave the sideline forever. Maybe 1965, when three assistant coaches — including Bobby Majors — were killed in a car-train crash in West Knoxville. But those were single, tragic events. Seldom has such a black cloud hovered over the top men’s sports programs at UT for so long. And, of course, it didn’t begin this year. Football has been bad for some time now and the basketball troubles actually began last year. But 2011 was especially ugly for Volunteer fans.

Consider:

On March 21, basketball coach Bruce Pearl was fired. Pearl, who came to Tennessee in 2005 after a string of coaches — beginning with Wade Houston and ending with Buzz Peterson — failed to work out over a 15-year period, led the Vols to their most success since the Ray Mears era, including a school-record six consecutive NCAA Tournament berths and the school’s first-ever No. 1 ranking.

Pearl’s demise began in 2008, when he hosted recruit Aaron Craft and others at his Knoxville home for a barbecue. The NCAA later began investigating the minor offense, which was compounded when Pearl lied about a photo that was taken at his home. In the end, the NCAA gave the university no option other than to fire its coach, making it clear that Pearl would not be permitted to stay on the sideline. Pearl was ultimately given a three-year “show cause” penalty by the NCAA.

But the story didn’t end there. In what turned out to be one of the ugliest episodes to ever unfold in the UT Athletics Department, athletics director Mike Hamilton appeared on a Knoxville radio show just days before the Vols’ first round NCAA Tournament game against Michigan and threw the team under the bus by suggesting that Pearl might not be retained following the season. After months of stating unequivocally on multiple occasions that the administration supported Pearl, Hamilton’s about-face was viewed by fans — whether rightly or wrongly — as an effort to sabotage the tournament game, thus reversing public sentiment, which was overwhelmingly in Pearl’s favor.

If that was the intent, it worked. The Vols phoned it in against Michigan, returning home with tail between legs to await the inevitable news of Pearl’s departure. Things got uglier when Hamilton and UT Chancellor Jimmy Cheek refused to meet the press, instead issuing a written statement to address Pearl’s termination. In the statement, it was eluded that Pearl had committed another NCAA violation in the weeks leading up to his termination, and that there were “off the court” issues as well.

Finally, sentiment began to swing, as many fans saw another violation as the proverbial straw that broke the camel’s back. Pearl just couldn’t help but break the rules, some said. Newspapers and news websites from coast to coast picked up the “news” that Pearl had committed an additional violation.

It was revealed fairly quickly that the additional violation was committed by an assistant on Tennessee’s staff, and that Pearl had no knowledge of it. It was too late; the damage had been done. Even months after Pearl was fired, news accounts of his whereabouts continued to reference the additional violation.

Pearl was canned and the NCAA was satisfied, but it came with a cost. Hamilton had been revealed as a puppet for Cheek, and it was obvious that his days at UT were numbered. Cheek may be at the university until he retires, but his legacy will forever be tarnished by his shameful handling of the Pearl situation.

Months later, the NCAA handed down its sanctions against Tennessee, and while the penalties were light, it marked the first time ever that both the football and basketball programs were in major trouble at the same time — basketball because of Pearl and his staff; football because of Lane Kiffin and his staff.

Mike Hamilton resigned his post as athletics director on June 7, days before the Vols were to appear before the NCAA’s Committee on Infractions and leaving much uncertainty in the athletics department at a tumultuous time. It was a day that had been inevitable ever since the Bruce Pearl situation turned sour, but it still left the Vols without a front man in the big business of athletics even as both the football and basketball programs were about to land on probation. For their part, fans worried that Hamilton’s departure so close to the COI appearance signified some major surprise about to come down the pipes. For his part, Hamilton said he wanted to give UT a “clean slate” before the COI, and walked away with a $1.3 million prize.

The subsequent search for a new AD turned into a public relations disaster for Cheek and his staff. After shelling out big bucks for a search firm to assist in the hunt, the university was publicly shunned by its top picks and remained without an AD until football season had begun, when Alabama’s Dave Hart was hired.

On Aug. 22, legendary UT women’s coach Pat Summitt stunned Tennessee and the basketball world by announcing that she had been diagnosed with early-onset Alzheimer’s, at the age of only 59. With more than 1,000 wins — more than any other college basketball coach, ever — and eight national championships to her credit, Summitt is credited as the architect of the game of women’s basketball. Though she said she will continue to coach this season — and wants to coach at least two more — the news saddened the University of Tennessee and its supporters.

No one needs to be told that Alzheimer’s is terminal 100% of the time, that there is no cure, and that early-onset sufferers usually face a quicker demise than older patients who are afflicted with the disease.

After Tennessee roared out of the gates to start the 2011 football season, Justin Hunter went down with a season-ending knee injury on the first series of the season’s third game at Florida on Sept. 17. Hunter and quarterback Tyler Bray had proven to be a lethal combination during the Vols’ two wins to start the year — one of which was a shellacking of Big East favorite Cincinnati, which would later be ranked among the nation’s Top 25 teams — but that all changed at an instant at The Swamp. A stunned Tennessee team watched as the Gators stormed to a huge first half lead. The Vols made things interesting in the second half, once they had recovered from their deer-in-the-headlights moment, but it was painfully obvious that the entire season had been turned on its nose.

And, indeed, it had been. Tennessee’s offense never really recovered from that injury, struggling to find the end zone against Georgia three weeks later. When Bray was injured in the fourth quarter of that game, things got even worse for a Tennessee team that had looked like an 8-4 team, perhaps even a 9-3 team, but were suddenly reduced to a middle of the pack SEC team . . . or worse.

After the injuries to Justin Hunter and Tyler Bray, Tennessee’s 2011 football season slowly began to rot from the inside out. There were losses to teams that had the Vols outmanned — LSU, Alabama and South Carolina — but the problem was deeper than that. Tennessee often failed to even show up in the second half, and had problems getting the right personnel on the field and the right play called throughout the season. The offensive line was like a sieve; the running game was non-existent. The receivers, sans SEC leader Da’Rick Rogers, simply didn’t show up as often as not.

Tennessee failed to show up in Fayetteville and was embarrassed by a Top 10 Arkansas team, but the one that added insult to injury was a 10-7 loss at Kentucky on Nov. 26. The Vols simply phoned it in against the Wildcats, who were able to end a 27-year losing skid to UT.

The Vols finished with a losing record in back-to-back years for the first time in a century, and finished dead last in the SEC East for the first time ever. They also posted a school record for conference losses, managing to beat just one team en route to a 1-7 finish. Fan support of Derek Dooley rapidly diminished, former players began to heavily criticize the Tennessee coach for his treatment of current players, and new AD Dave Hart made it clear — without saying so in so many words — that a subpar season in 2012 will not be tolerated.

And if the 2012 season plays out like more than a few UT fans have begrudgingly accepted that it will, Tennessee will find itself searching for its fourth head coach in six seasons.

Within days of Tennessee’s embarrassing loss at Kentucky to end the season, wide receivers coach Charlie Baggett abruptly resigned amid reports that star wideout Da’Rick Rogers was receiving preferential treatment from Derek Dooley. Reporters talked about witnessing Rogers disrespecting Baggett on the sidelines at Kentucky, and there were numerous reports and speculation that Rogers and quarterback Tyler Bray had not shown up to play against Kentucky because they weren’t interested in going to a lower-tier bowl game, such as the Music City Bowl or the Liberty Bowl. As the dismal, 5-7 season faded in the rearview mirror, Rogers’ status as a Tennessee player became very uncertain.

When former Purdue and NBA player Cuonzo Martin was hired on March 20, he was handed the unenviable task of stepping into Bruce Pearl’s shoes, and of succeeding with a program mired in NCAA uncertainty and with a poor returning roster.

There have been some successes, particularly on the recruiting trail, and Tennessee showed promise in Maui, Ha., losing to Top 10 Memphis in overtime and playing Top 10 Duke tough from wire to wire. Later, Tennessee lost to a Top 15 Pitt team by only five points at Thompson-Boling Arena.

But on Dec. 10, Tennessee slipped to a new low when Austin Peay — a 1-9 team near the bottom of the OVC standings — came to Thompson-Boling Arena and escaped with a 74-70, come-from-behind win. It was one of the worst losses in decades; the kind that demoralizes a basketball team.

After also falling to College of Charlston, Tennessee managed to bounce back with closely-contested wins over UNC Asheville and ETSU, but fewer than 10,000 fans attended each game at TBA, spawning the question: will the Buzz Peterson-era black curtain return to the arena’s upper levels as the season progresses?

For a team that has been to six consecutive NCAA Tournaments, an NIT bid is looking like a major achievement as the calendar year draws to a close.

And if all that’s not enough, let’s not lose sight of the fact that baseball coach Todd Raleigh was fired after a dismal 7-23 season in the SEC (25-28 overall) and four consecutive losing seasons in league play.

Colder air moving in this evening could change over any remnants of the storm system currently pulling away from the region into snow showers across the Cumberland Plateau, but that’s simply a nuisance as the Winter That Isn’t A Winter continues unabated . . . at least for now.

Weather-watchers are beginning to chatter about a system being advertised by some models early next week. The European model in particular develops a deep trough over the eastern U.S., with a fairly potent storm system to interact with the cold air. Such a setup would bring the potential for accumulating snow to parts of Tennessee.

The ECMWF does have some support from some other models. Our domestic GFS model throws some support to the ECMWF’s wintry depiction with some of its ensemble members, though the operational run of the GFS does not show any such thing.

Forecasters are split on what will transpire.

NOAA’s Hydrometeorological Prediction Center is placing its bets with the Euro over the GFS, while some weather field offices of the National Weather Service are going with the GFS over the Euro.

Personally, I think the predictions of a Southeastern snow storm during the first week of January are little more than wishful thinking from the snow hounds. The teleconnections remain a wreck for wintry weather; the North Atlantic Oscillation and Arctic Oscillation are forecast by most models to at least reach neutral territory next week, but unless a ridge pops out west, we’re going to have a hard time getting the kind of deep trough over the east that the Euro is currently projecting.

The larger picture overall continues to feature a +NAO/+AO regime dominating the pattern. While both indices improve next week, it looks like they’ll probably be short-lived, which means that while we’re likely to see a cool-down next week after a continued mild pattern this week (most areas of Tennessee may hit 60 degrees Saturday), the warmer weather will probably come calling again sooner rather than later. With models now starting to indicate the Pacific North American (PNA) ridge index becoming less favorable for cold air in the east, the chances for serious winter weather in this neck of the woods becomes even less.

There’s still plenty of time for things to change, but if some signs of a change don’t start to pop up on the horizon pretty soon, this could very well go down as one of the least snowiest winters we’ve seen in a long time. While winter didn’t begin on the calendar until just last week, we’re technically charging head-long towards the season’s mid-point. The days are already starting to get longer, and if there is indeed no pattern change in the next two weeks — as it currently appears — then we’ll be getting perilously close to mid January. That gives us about two more weeks before February arrives, and if we get to Feb. 1 without a broad-scale pattern change, this winter will likely go down as a wash even if we do see snow in the final few weeks before spring.

Another favorite from 2011. From the Sept. 8 issue of the Independent Herald.

Act II: drug dealers targeted

Shortly before lunch on a rainy Labor Day Monday, several law enforcement patrol cruisers and undercover vehicles rolled into Oak Park Apartments in north Oneida.

Officers simultaneously descended on several apartments, armed with warrants for the arrest of Oak Park residents suspected of selling drugs.

Drug teams targeted five suspects in the sprawling apartment complex off of Sandcut Road, which law enforcement officials say has been a hot bed of drug activity that has prompted concern and complaints from other residents of the complex.

The effort was part of an extensive drug operation involving what law enforcement officials have termed unprecedented cooperation between the Oneida Police Department and Scott County Sheriff’s Department.

Pouring hundreds of man hours into a months-long undercover operation — sometimes working jointly; sometimes individually — officers from Oneida and Scott County gathered evidence against more than 40 suspected drug dealers.

Three of the five Oak Park residents — Joseph W. Stephens, Chacey Yancey and Gatchel Owens III — were successfully taken into custody and face charges of selling narcotics.

As a steady rain fell throughout the day, law enforcement targeted other suspects in virtually every community in Scott County — from Robbins to Pioneer to Winfield. The two agencies had long planned the “roundup” of suspects on the Labor Day holiday. The inclement weather played into their hands. Suspects are less likely to be on the move in foul weather. More importantly, they’re less likely to suspect that law enforcement will be on the move — both because of the weather and because of the holiday.

“Labor Day is just another day to labor,” Sheriff Mike Cross says with a shrug.

Oneida Chief of Police Darryl Laxton said the successful operation was the result of cooperation between OPD and the Sheriff’s Department. It’s no secret that the relationship between the two agencies has been strained in recent years. But both agencies say that has changed. Before being elected sheriff in August 2010, Cross was a long-time chief of police in Oneida. He and current Oneida chief Laxton grew up together, have worked together and often squirrel hunted together. When it comes to law enforcement methods, they’re both cut from the same cloth — each getting his start from Darryl’s father, former Scott County Sheriff Jack Laxton.

“This is the first time this has ever happened,” Laxton said Monday. “In the past year, the number of burglaries that these two agencies have solved has gone way up and that’s because of the information sharing back and forth between us. It’s the same way with drugs.”

The two agencies worked in tandem throughout the day Monday, arresting a total of 27 suspects by the end of the day. Outstanding warrants await the arrest of 15 more. And drug agents say they have collected enough evidence to charge nearly a dozen more on top of that, though those cases have not yet been processed.

“We wanted to share information just to make sure we weren’t stepping on cases they were working on,” Cross said. “That’s why we have 42 different individuals that we’re picking up instead of just 22, or another low number.”

The day started at 9 a.m., with a debriefing at a discrete location, where suspects who might happen by would be unlikely to see the dozens of law enforcement vehicles gathering — a sure give-away that a large-scale operation was underway. After prayer by Rev. Jim West, pastor of White Rock Baptist Church, officers targeted two suspects who they say have been a thorn in the sides of their respective communities. One, John Steven Godsey, of the Helenwood Loop community, is in court-mandated rehab, officers learned. The second, Tony Neal, of West Third Street in Oneida, was taken into custody without incident.

“We’ve received so many calls on these guys that it’s unreal,” Cross said.

In each case, along with the dozens of others, drug agents conducted “buys,” in which pills are sold to informants and evidence of the purchases is recorded for use in court. It’s a long, tedious process. And one that often has agents returning to familiar addresses, according to Sheriff’s Department Drug Agent Kris Lewallen.

“A lot of these guys are repeat offenders and they’re indicted every single year,” Lewallen said.

Indeed, some of the suspects hardly look surprised when law enforcement teams roll up to their residences. Others are agitated. Still others are crying, exchanging hugs with family members before being led to waiting patrol cars for transport to the Scott County Justice Center. There, they’re booked and either make bail or await arraignment before General Sessions Judge Jamie Cotton Jr. Each suspect arrested Monday was to have been arraigned Tuesday morning.

Most suspects were taken into custody without incident, though there were exceptions. One suspect attempted to escape by crawling through a hole in the floor of his residence.

Another escaped through a basement door and hid in the undergrowth outside his residence until he was discovered by officers.

In many instances, suspects were led away as wives or girlfriends, and sometimes children, looked on.

“I hate it for the families,” said Detective Randy Lewallen, a veteran of local law enforcement. “And that’s every family in Scott County. In some way, every family is impacted by drugs.”

The crackdown is the result of a community fed up with its drug problem and anxious for something to be done about it. The local law enforcement agencies have stepped up their efforts, and Monday’s round-up was part of what Cross termed “act two” in the local war on drugs. After a much-publicized rash of methamphetamine lab busts throughout the summer, the focus has shifted to suspected drug dealers.

However, Cross said priorities haven’t really changed.

“We haven’t just stopped focusing on meth,” he said. “We think, or at least hope, that we’ve just made a big dent in the meth. This operation was actually going on in the middle of the meth stuff.”

It’s been an exhaustive effort on both sides.

“There have been times when we’d do drug buys all day, then go out and round up burglary suspects at night and then be on a meth lab by noon the next day,” Lewallen said. “There has been more than once when my wife and I were getting ready to go to Knoxville and the sheriff would call and say, ‘Don’t go anywhere tonight. We’re meeting at 1 a.m.’”

But they also try to compensate.

“There are slow days where the sheriff says, ‘I’m taking my wife out tonight and my phone will be off,” Lewallen said.

For law enforcement teams, the reward is in the results. Monday’s effort was deemed a success. Though several suspects were not located, officials hope the public can help lead them to those suspects, or the suspects will turn themselves in once they learn they’re being sought on charges.

Shortly before 8 p.m. Monday evening, 11 hours after the operation began, Lewallen is texting his appreciation to the teams from OPD and the Sheriff’s Department. But even as this operation is ending, another is sure to begin.

“It’s kinda like when you pull a weed from your garden and the next thing you know, five more weeds have grown up around it,” Lewallen said. “My thoughts are that if we arrest 50 drug dealers, there will be a hundred to take their place.”

Taking part in Monday’s operation from Oneida Police Department were Chief Laxton, Drug Agent Blake Murphy and officers Michael Blaker, Jason Pike, Adam Douglas and Josh Kennedy.

Taking part from the Sheriff’s Department were Sheriff Cross, Chief Deputy Ronnie Phillips, Captain Gary Sexton, Detectives Bob Brown, Lewallen, Tommy Silcox and Jennifer Culver, Agent Lewallen, Sgt. Gene Yaden and deputies Keith Hawkins, Eric Newport, Lisa Anderson, Shane Blevins, Cody Yancey, Steven Ward and Dennis Chambers.

Murphy, who headed up much of the undercover work on behalf of OPD, called the operation a success and credited the cooperation between the agencies.

“Countless hours have gone into this operation but after today’s result I think it has been a huge success,” Murphy said. “The combined efforts of the two departments took a lot of drug dealers off the street.”

And while there may never be a shortage of suppliers of illegal narcotics, law enforcement hope operations such as the one culminating Monday will hinder the free flow of those drugs through the community. Dealers will be more hesitant to sell if they can’t be sure whether they’re selling to a legitimate buyer or someone who is working for one of the local law enforcement agencies.

“This was the first counter drug operation under Oneida’s new chief and the county’s new sheriff but I’m sure it won’t be the last,” Murphy said.

Another of my favorites from 2011. From the June 30 edition of the Independent Herald.

After Hours

“The number one rule of law enforcement is ‘hurry up and wait.’”

Those are the words of Scott County Sheriff Mike Cross. It’s shortly after midnight, and members of the Sheriff’s Department’s “5-0″ team are gathered at a rendezvous point in Oneida, waiting for a phone call that may or may not come regarding the whereabouts of a suspect they’re seeking.

Armed with arrest warrants, the team of law enforcement officers is seeking three suspects wanted on sex-related charges. They are three hours into the operation, which is led by Det. Jennifer Culver, the department’s sex crimes investigator.

The night started routine enough, but the primary focus shifted when officers received a tip about possible drug traffic. Sheriff Cross diverted some of his team to search for a vehicle believed to be transporting methamphetamine. The department has busted more than a dozen meth labs in the past nine months, and hampering the drug’s flow through Scott County remains a priority.

“You start off looking for a sex offender and you wind up busting a meth lab,” drug agent Kris Lewallen says. “You just never know how it’s going to go.”

But the search for their suspect is initially fruitless, and the priority returns to the mission at hand.

‘THEY WON’T EXPECT US TONIGHT’

The first suspect sought by the Sheriff’s Department team was Anthony W. Terry. The Winfield man was wanted on nine counts of aggravated statutory rape, a heightened charge carrying a stiffer penalty than the normal statutory rape charge, and applied when perpetrators are more than 10 years older than their victim. Terry is 38. His alleged victim is just 13.

After a quick debriefing at the Scott County Justice Center in the gathering twilight, officers divided into two teams, with Sheriff Cross and Det. Culver leading one group to an Oneida apartment where Terry is known to stay at times, while Chief Deputy Ronnie Phillips leads a second group to Terry’s Winfield residence.

Lightning flashes continuously in the western sky as a storm rolls in. The National Weather Service’s Morristown field office issues a severe thunderstorm warning for Scott County. But the wicked weather isn’t necessarily a bad thing.

“Our suspects won’t expect us tonight,” Sheriff Cross said. “They won’t think we’re out on a night like this.”

The “5-0″ team takes its name from the popular 1970s TV show Hawaii 5-O, in which the Hawaii state police relentlessly hounded organized crime bosses and other criminals plaguing the islands.

In Scott County, law enforcement officers are relentlessly hounding probation violators and other fugitives from justice. The department maintains a “most wanted” list of priority suspects, which is circulated amongst its officers and will eventually be posted on the department’s website to solicit the public’s help in locating the suspects. Officers have arrested a number of those suspects in the last five months; the sheriff says many of them were apprehended after being worn down from the relentless pursuit.

The team’s operations are often carried out at night — operating under the cloak of darkness helps mask their movements from suspects, and night is when the suspects often let their guard down. Sleepiness inhibits the senses. Which is why the team of officers is carrying out the operation well into the night, after having already put in a full day on the job.

ONE DOWN, SEVERAL TO GO

As it turns out, the Sheriff’s Department’s wanted man is at neither of the residences where they hope he’ll be. But the team is able to gather information on his whereabouts — he’s at a companion’s home nearby. Moments later, he was apprehended without incident in the parking lot of an Oneida business.

As Sgt. Gene Yaden transports Terry to the Justice Center for booking — bail has already been set at $150,000 — the 5-0 team is already reorganizing and preparing to go after a second suspect on sex-related charges as torrential rainfall pounds the streets.

While the Sheriff’s Department has warrants for just three suspects, several other sex crime investigations are underway. Det. Culver says the frequency of the crimes seems to be increasing; as many as nine separate investigations have been conducted simultaneously, some taking months to build a foolproof case before officers are ready to apprehend their suspects.

Det. Culver said men convicted of aggravated statutory rape prey on “weak and vulnerable” young girls. In one case, a suspect allegedly gave a girl less than one-third his age five dollars and half a pack of cigarettes in exchange for sex.

“We have to get these guys off the streets,” Sheriff Cross said. “Every day they’re out there is a day they’re looking for another victim.”

Despite hitting two residences their second suspect is known to occupy at times, officers are unable to locate him; he’s reportedly managed to leave the state.

The focus then turns to a third suspect. Edward A. Burchfield, 43, is wanted on one count of aggravated statutory rape. His alleged victim is 13.

After a brief discussion on whether to approach Burchfield’s Kingtown community residence silently on foot or “storm it” with multiple units, officers opt for the latter, surprising Burchfield as he works inside a garage near his residence.

SHIFTING FOCUS

As Deputy Toby Jeffers transports Burchfield to the Justice Center, where he’ll be placed under $100,000 bail, the night’s primary operation is finished. But Sheriff Cross is determined to take advantage of the benefit the weather has provided.

Doyle Clark, 54, is one of the suspects on the Sheriff’s Department’s “most wanted” list. He’s been wanted since 2008, when he allegedly violated terms of his probation he was placed under following a conviction in 2007 for DUI and drug possession.

Plans are made to return to Clark’s Cherry Fork Road residence, where he managed to elude officers attempting to take him into arrest several days earlier. First, however, another call is received. Their potential drug suspect is on the move again. But a drive to a rural area of Scott County again proves fruitless.

“That’s the way it goes when you’re working drugs,” Agent Lewallen says. “You have to have patience. Sometimes you can go after them all night long before catching a break.”

Back in Oneida, the team is gathering to descend upon Clark’s residence. Armed with knowledge that he’s asleep inside the residence, officers surround the small mobile home.

Clark refuses to answer the door, but a second man inside the residence eventually relents, and officers discover Clark hidden in a bedroom inside.

It’s been 19 hours since the work day began as officers make their way back to the Justice Center, and just five hours until a new work day begins. But the night is deemed a success. Two of three warrants have been successfully executed, and a suspect Sheriff Cross had termed a “priority” has been apprehended.

“You just have to be relentless,” he said. “That’s what it takes.”

Relentless like the boys from 5-O.

As I look back through the stories and columns that were written throughout the course of the past year, a few stand out as my favorites. This is one of them. From the April 14 edition of the Independent Herald . . .

Seeking a higher power

It may have been a first in Scott County’s history: hundreds of residents — public officials and ordinary citizens alike — linked hand-in-hand on the old Courthouse Mall in Huntsville, seeking intervention from a higher power.

On a warm spring evening, nearly 300 turned out for Friday’s event, which was organized by First District Scott County Commissioner David “Blue” Day with the support of Scott County Sheriff Mike Cross.

Fittingly, signs of spring could be seen around the mall — from the last of the Bradford pear blooms to the new dogwood blooms — as hundreds of voices were lifted together. With the signs of nature’s new beginning as a backdrop, concerned Scott Countians were also seeking a new beginning for a community ravaged by drugs.

The prayer service came about as the result of a discussion among officials about Scott County’s battle with illegal drugs.

The Sheriff’s Department has aggressively battled the source of the drug problem — busting 11 methamphetamine labs since Sept. 1, 2010, and targeting dealers of prescription pain medications through undercover operations. But despite hundreds of charges being filed and dozens of suspects being indicted by grand juries, drugs still manage to flow through the community with relative ease.

A side effect of the drug addiction issue is theft, which law enforcement officers say is often tied to drug use as suspects seek money to purchase drugs. Burglary cases have skyrocketed in recent months.

But the breaking point was when the deaths began to mount. Five Scott Countians died of a drug overdose in March. According to the Sheriff’s Department, those overdoses were accidental.

“These are not bad people; they just have a problem,” one law enforcement officer said.

“Blue and I were talking and he said, ‘Sheriff, what are we going to do about this?’” Sheriff Cross recalled. “I said, ‘Blue, the only thing I know to do is pray.’ I didn’t think much of it, but he took it and ran with it.”

Within days, Day had contacted a number of local ministers and set up a prayer service on the mall.

That Scott County — a community in the heart of the Bible Belt with a background rooted firmly in protestant Christianity — would turn to prayer as a solution to its problem was hardly noteworthy. But that so many officials gathered in public to take part in prayer might have been.

“There’s no doubt that this is still a Christian county,” Sheriff’s Department Chief Deputy Ronnie Phillips said. “I’ve patrolled enough Sundays to know how many people in our county go to church on Sunday mornings and Sunday evenings.”

As the scheduled start time for Friday’s service arrived, a few dozen residents huddled together by the mall’s gazebo, where a public address system had been assembled. As ministers took the microphone, one by one, more residents streamed onto the mall, parking at nearby businesses and walking to the historic public square. By the time the final minister had his say, well over 200 — some already with tears in their eyes and some already beginning to pray — had gathered.

As a large human circle began to form around the mall, a number of local officials joined hand-in-hand with ministers and other church-goers. Several county-wide office holders and county commissioners were present, as were school board members, uniformed EMTs who are often called upon to respond to accidental drug overdoses, law enforcement officers who are called upon to arrest those found in possession of illegal drugs, and concerned residents who have family members who are addicted to prescription drugs.

For nearly five minutes, prayers were lifted. Some prayed loud enough ot be heard at the old Scott County Courthouse, several hundred yards away; some prayed silently; some knelt and wept.

“One of the news people said, ‘Do you think this will work?’ White Rock Baptist Church pastor Jim West said. “Faith says it will. If we knew how to fix this problem, we would have already fixed it.

“How proud we are of Scott County tonight,” West added. “It’s time we fixed our problem together and in the Lord Jesus Christ. This is the most positive thing this community has done since all of this (drug addiction) began.”

Tim Russell, pastor at Mt. Pleasant Baptist Church, called the prayer “a last resort” for Scott County.

“Just by us getting together and praying, we can change things,” Russell said. “If I didn’t believe that, I wouldn’t be here. I tell my church all the time that we might be a small church, but if every small church would just pray, it would turn into a big thing.”

James Taylor, a local businessman who pastors Low Gap Baptist Church, called on Scott Countians to keep the prayer going.

“Don’t let this prayer end tonight,” Taylor said. “When you get home, say another prayer. Pray for our people who are hooked on drugs.”

Second District County Commissioner Sam Lyles said Scott Countians were turning to prayer because “we don’t know what else to do.” He added, “It can’t hurt.”

State Rep. Kelly Keisling, a Republican from Byrdstown who was elected to represent Scott County in November, said it is “time to humble ourselves” and pray for a solution to the problem.

After a rendition of Amazing Grace, the circle slowly broke and disbanded, but not without plans to join again.

Scott County Trustee Jimmy D. Byrd, who moderated the service, called on Scott Countians to gather on the mall monthly for prayer seeking a fix to the community’s issues.

“God heard this prayer tonight,” Byrd said. “There’s no doubt about it.”