Blackberry winter will pack a punch

Make sure the pilot light on your furnace is still lit, because you may need it this weekend, one last time before warm weather arrives for good.

After record-setting heat last weekend to close out April, it looks like we’re going to see very cool conditions this weekend — perhaps as much as 20 degrees below normal Saturday afternoon.

Forecast temperatures continue to trend downward, which is not surprising. Currently, the National Weather Service is forecasting a high of 52 for Oneida on Friday. That’s down nine degrees in just two days. But as I told you on Monday, when the NWS was forecasting 61 for a high, that was likely to happen. It continues to look as though temps will struggle to get out of the 40s on Friday, as an upper level low continues to impact the region.

Warmth won’t return on Saturday, either; the latest forecast from the NWS calls for a high of just 56 degrees then, even as the rain finally moves out and drier weather returns. In the aftermath of the upper low, a trough will have developed over the eastern U.S., and a stiff north breeze will continue to deliver cooler temperatures. The NWS is now forecasting a low of 39 degrees on both Saturday and Sunday mornings.

What happens after that remains less certain. We should see 60s return by Sunday afternoon, but the NWS says 70s won’t be back until at least Tuesday — and even then, the NWS is forecasting a high of just 69. The GFS forecast model, though, is running several degrees warmer than that, topping us out near 80 both Tuesday and Wednesday.

And while NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center continues to forecast below-average temperatures for all of the first half of May, the GFS is stubbornly holding to its projections that normal temps will return after this cold snap, and even above-normal temperatures will be in store as we get closer to the middle of the month.

In case you’re wondering, the record low temperature for Saturday is 37, and the record low for Sunday is 38, so we’re going to be close to setting some new records on the low side this weekend after setting records on the high side last weekend.

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