The Big South Fork National River & Recreation Area’s annual Spring Planting Festival will be held Saturday, April 28, at Bandy Creek and the nearby Lora Blevins homeplace.

The Planting Festival is a celebration of the traditions and history of the subsistence farmers who once carved out a way of life on the lands that today make up the Big South Fork NRRA. Among the activities will be gardening and planting demonstrations, antique farm equipment displays, live music, crafters and vendors, food, a farm animal petting zoo for the kids, and more.

The event is free to the public and begins at 9 a.m. Saturday morning.

The Planting Festival is one of two festivals hosted annually by the national park. The other is Haunting In The Hills, a story-telling festival that is held each September, usually on the third Saturday of the month.

No sooner than had the U.S. Drought Monitor included the Cumberlands in an “abnormally dry” classification — one step below an official drought, in the latest outlook released this morning — than did the region finally see some significant rainfall.

Rain showers had impacted much of the region at various times this week, but they were mostly pesky in nature. As of midnight this morning, Oneida had received only about a quarter-inch of precipitation during the entire month of April, which is typically one of the wettest months of the year. For perspective, the USDA-measured streamflow at Burnt Mill Bridge along Clear Fork dropped below 70 cubic feet per second (cfs) yesterday, which is almost unheard of even for the peak of summer (July-August), let alone for this time of year, when it is typically above 250 cfs.

That all changed this morning, when a pre-dawn mesoscale convective system (MCS) — a cluster of thunderstorms — pushed through the region. High winds accompanied the storms, and there were reports of minor damage throughout the region, mostly due to downed trees and sporadic power outages.

This afternoon, a broken line of thunderstorms pushed through the area, bringing copious amounts of rain to some spots, though there was quite a fine lines between the haves and the have-nots. In Oneida proper, for example, well over an inch of rain fell as three distinctly separate storm cells trained on the town beginning about 90 minutes before sunset. Just a short distance to the west, in the Big South Fork, rainfall amounts were much less.

This morning’s rainfall had little impact on streamflows; the ground was extremely dry and could suck up most of that moisture in a hurry. At Burnt Mill Bridge, Clear Fork remained below 100 cfs, in fact (while it takes a few hours for the full impact of a rainfall to be felt at Leatherwood Ford on Big South Fork, well below the headwaters in Anderson and Fentress counties, it is felt much quicker at Burnt Mill, which is much closer to its headwaters near Allardt in Fentress County, and to a lesser extent at the U.S. Hwy. 27 bridge over New River, which is a little further from its Anderson County headwaters, but not nearly as far as Leatherwood Ford).

This evening’s rainfall was quite a different story. Just before midnight tonight, Clear Fork has risen above 100 cfs for the first time in a couple of weeks and is still climbing. It should crest before morning, assuming more storms don’t develop overnight.

Decent storm chances continue tomorrow and into the weekend, which might insure that the “abnormally dry” status is lifted by the time the next U.S. Drought Monitor report is issued one week from now.

BANDY CREEK — Hike through some of the Big South Fork’s hemlock forests near here and you might see telltale marks on some of the majestic evergreens.

Here a blue dot, there a blue dot, usually on the side of the hemlocks facing away from roads or trails, where they’re least likely to disrupt the aesthetic nature of the landscape. The trees marked by paint are those that have been treated by the National Park Service in an effort to ward off infestations of the hemlock woolly adelgid.

A tiny insect native to Japan, the woolly adelgid is the same bug responsible for decimating hemlock forests throughout the southern Appalachians. Now it has invaded the Cumberland Plateau as it continues its westward march.

In the 123,000-acre Big South Fork National River & Recreation Area and across the Cumberland Plateau, teams of scientists and foresters are in a race against time — and limited funds — to save as many of the stately trees as possible from the inevitable death that a woolly adelgid infestation brings.

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One of Southern Gospel’s most popular groups, The McKameys (from Clinton, Tenn.), will be the featured group at this year’s Fire & Brimstone concert. In its second year, the event is held on the Saturday of Memorial Day weekend at an outdoor venue in Huntsville, Tenn. (On River Road, at the foot of the mountains that make up Brimstone Recreation.)

The event offers an alternative for those who aren’t into country music. Just up the road (trail, actually), at Brimstone Recreation’s Half Cabin Event Area, the annual White Knuckle Event will be in full swing. This year, the event is headlined by Chris Cagle, who will take the stage Saturday evening at the event area just off Trail #3.

This video is of The McKameys’ most popular song, God On The Mountain. Peg has aged a lot since they first began singing this song, but she’s every bit as animated now as she was back then. As one YouTube commentator said, “Keep thinking Peg’s about to have her own private rapture just like Enoch.” Heh.

Yesterday’s rainfall did little to raise streamflows in the free-flowing rivers of the Cumberlands.

As the weekend ends, the streamflows — which are already too low for rafting in the region’s famed whitewater stretches — continue to drop.

At Leatherwood Ford (S.R. 297) on the Big South Fork River, the current streamflow is measured by the U.S.G.S. at 260 cubic feet per second (cfs). That’s significantly lower than the record minimum flow for this date, which is 509 cfs, set in 2010. (For more than a week, the record minimum flow was in 1986, when a dry spring dropped streamflows to very low levels. However, heavy rains on April 20-21 that year raised streamflows.) For a little perspective, the streamflow at Leatherwood Ford measures more than 700 cfs on this date 75% of the time, with an average of 1,020 cfs.

At Burnt Mill Bridge (Honey Creek Road) on Clear Fork, the flow has dropped to an astounding 88 cfs, making it much too low for even canoes. The record low for this date continues to be in 1963, which also saw incredibly dry spring conditions across the region (record-keeping at Leatherwood Ford didn’t begin until the 1980s). The streamflow on April 22 in 1963 was 69 cfs. We are now at levels on Clear Fork that usually aren’t seen until at least mid-summer. Seventy-five percent of the time, the streamflow on Clear Fork on this date is above 200 cfs, with an average of 354 cfs.

New River, which combines with Clear Fork to form the Big South Fork, was the only of the three rivers to see a noticeable streamflow increase from yesterday’s rain, but it was very slight. Currently, the flow is 178 cfs at the U.S. Hwy. 27 bridge near Robbins, Tenn. The record minimum for this date is 100 cfs, set in 1963. Seventy-five percent of the time, the April 22 streamflow at New River is above 350 cfs, with an average of 535 cfs.

Nobody likes a windy day (or night), but gusty conditions the next couple of days could be a big help for growers across the northern parts of Tennessee.

The latest GFS model output statistics drops the northern Cumberland Plateau to 33 degrees tonight and 34 tomorrow night as our “blackberry winter” kicks in. But a tight pressure gradient across the region will result in windy conditions both nights, which should help prevent frost formation.

The National Weather Service in Morristown is forecasting a low of 36 each night in Oneida, and has issued a wind advisory, calling for gusts up to 30 mph each night.

The NWS in Nashville sees much lighter winds tonight, and is forecasting a low of 33 in Jamestown with just 5-10 mph winds, in which case scattered frost could be a concern. For tomorrow night, gusts to 25 mph are forecast, with a low of 35. In a forecast discussion, meteorologists at the Nashville office lean towards no frost problems for tonight, but the possibility of frost across the northern plateau as winds lay down tomorrow night.

For now, there are no frost advisories or freeze watches anywhere in the region.

Update (4/22/12, 8:33 pm): The National Weather Service’s Nashville field office has updated its forecast to include the possibility of patchy frost tomorrow and Tuesday mornings across the Cumberlands, primarily in sheltered valleys.

“Houston, we have a problem.”

That’s what Big South Fork National River & Recreation Area botanist Marie J.J. Kerr says the appropriate response would’ve been had she been aboard Apollo 13 after discovering the hemlock woolly adelgid on hemlock trees near the historic John Litton Farm near the park’s Bandy Creek Visitors Center in January 2011.

Three months earlier, the woolly adelgid — HWA for short — had made its first appearance near the Blue Heron mining community on the Kentucky side of the park.

A long-dreaded insect had finally arrived.

“We knew it was only a matter of time before the hemlock woolly adelgid would show up in the hemlock trees in the Big South Fork, but it was still a shock when we found some,” Kerr said.

Fast-forward another 15 months and the HWA has been found throughout the park — from the northern tip to the southern tip and points between. So much so, in fact, that park biologists have stopped looking for infestations of the bug itself and have begun identifying trees that they want to save.

HWA has already decimated hemlock populations in the southern Appalachians. It wiped out the stately hemlocks in the Shenandoah National Park, and nearly did the same in the Great Smoky Mountains. Despite aggressive techniques in the Smokies after the HWA first showed up in 2003, it is estimated that only 10%-20% of the park’s original hemlock stands are still alive.

Now, the insect is marching across the Cumberland Plateau.

In the southern Apps, the hemlock is sometimes referred to as “the redwood of the east.” Old-growth hemlocks can measure more than six ft. in diameter and stand tens of stories tall.

There are no old growth hemlocks in the Big South Fork — despite their low timber value, they were still logged in most areas — and few across the Cumberland Plateau. But there are some large hemlocks around, and millions of the trees across the plateau as a whole.

The tree’s importance to the streams and forests here cannot be understated. Preferring cooler areas, they provide layered shelter and cover for songbirds and small mammals, and shade the streams along which they frequently grow — cooling the waters and keeping them better oxidized.

In the BSF, hemlocks are numerous in the river gorge and along all its tributaries, large and small. In fact, there are an estimated 16,000 acres of hemlock stands in the park — making up 13% of the park’s 123,000 acres.

Across the plateau, the trees provide scenic vistas in numerous areas. In fact, in the northern plateau’s Cumberland Mountains, hemlocks along the streams are among the few areas untouched by clear-cutting over the past 15 years, creating scenic backdrops among thousands of acres of new growth.

Soon, though, that will change.

Within ten years, experts figure most of the hemlocks along the Cumberland Plateau will be dead or dying. Any unprotected hemlock is almost certain to be infested by the HWA, and an infestation will almost certainly kill the tree. The tiny insect — no larger than a 10-pt. comma head — feasts on the tree’s sap, robbing the tree of nutrients and eventually killing it. Most trees are dead within three-to-five years of being infested.

Biologists still aren’t sure exactly what the end result will be. The HWA infestation has been compared to the blight that eliminated the great American chestnut in the early 20th Century. But unlike the chestnut — which was replaced by other nut-bearing trees, such as oak — there’s nothing to take the place of hemlocks; nothing to provide the benefits these trees provide. Botanists warn that streams will be altered, even the soil itself will be altered. Numerous rare plants and endangered or threatened species of aquatic life — 12 in the Big South Fork NRRA alone — could be in danger of being lost if the hemlocks die.

Back in the Big South Fork, park biologists have now identified some areas where dying hemlocks indicate that the HWA likely was around before October 2010. One area in particular is along the Oscar Blevins Loop Trail near the park’s visitors center at Bandy Creek.

There is treatment available, but it’s a race against time and shrinking budgets, and park service officials say only so many trees can be saved.

“If you’re a landowner with six or seven hemlocks in your yard, that’s easy to sustain,” said Big South Fork Chief of Resources Tom Blount. “If you have 100 acres, you have to make a decision on whether you’re going to save them.”

The most common method of protecting the hemlocks is the use of pesticides. The chemicals are relatively inexpensive, costing only about 20 cents per diameter inch, meaning a hemlock that is a foot in diameter can be treated for a little less than $2.50. But when there are hundreds of thousands of trees to save, that small cost becomes a budget-buster. And each tree must be treated individually, either by applying the chemicals to the earth around the base of the tree or, as is the case with trees near streams, injecting the chemicals directly into the tree trunk. The Big South Fork estimates it can treat 5,000 trees each year. That doesn’t leave enough time to get to even a small fraction of the trees within the park, and each tree must be retreated in three-to-seven years.

Another method is using exotic beetles that feed on the HWA and nothing else. The beetles are bred and tested in laboratories at the University of Tennessee, and have been used in the Smokies and elsewhere with some success. But they’re cost-prohibitive (about $1.50 per beetle, with at least 1,000 required to start an effective colony), and the amount of red tape to go through at the federal level before being cleared to release them makes it questionable whether the BSF will ever try that method.

Still another method is the aerial application of insect-killing fungus. It has been tested on small tracts of state land within the North Cumberland Wildlife Management Area and has been estimated to reduce the HWA population by up to 50%, but it has not yet been cleared by the Environmental Protection Agency for widespread use.

In the meantime, only a small portion of hemlocks will be saved. The Nature Conservancy’s Tennessee chapter says it hopes to save 10% of the hemlocks across the Cumberland Plateau. The Big South Fork isn’t putting an absolute number on their goal, but Kerr says that 10% is an optimistic scenario.

If 10% can be saved, that means more than 14,000 acres of hemlock stands — plus hemlocks that are scattered intermittently throughout the park — will die, leaving large brown spots dotting the landscape that are every bit as ugly as those found in the Smokies. And due to sheer numbers alone, the hemlock is perhaps an even more important tree here in the Cumberlands than in the Smokies.

The next step for the park service is to decide which trees will be saved. To that end, the Big South Fork has identified a three-tier approach: tier one is the trees that must be saved, tier two is the trees that they hope to save, and tier three is the trees that probably won’t be saved.

Among the tier one hemlocks are those along roadways and trails — a standard rule is any hemlock within 150 ft. of either side — as well as those around trailheads, parking lots and campgrounds, those around areas of historical importance, such as the John Litton Farm and the Oscar Blevins Farm, those around popular areas, such as the Twin Arches, and those around resource-important areas, such as streams where endangered or threatened aquatic species are present.

The rest will be lost due to a lack of time and resources. It’s inevitable — the forests of the Cumberlands are about to be dramatically altered, at least aesthetically if not fundamentally. And most residents don’t realize it.

The upcoming cold snap is continuing to take shape and there are some indications that it may be colder than the last one, at least in some ways.

When models trended away from a frost-freeze threat for early next week, I warned that it was too early to say for sure that it wouldn’t happen, primarily due to the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Arctic Oscillation were both going negative at the same time. As it turns out, the GFS model (and, to a slightly lesser extent, the ECMWF model) has done an about-face.

The GFS has been showing a frost threat for early next week for a couple of days now, but this morning’s run is particularly cold.

Here are the highs and lows for the northern Cumberland Plateau over the next several days, as projected by the GFS model output statistics:

Saturday – 51/56
Sunday – 39/55
Monday – 34/52
Tuesday – 35/56
Wednesday – 40/68

Monday looks to be the biggest threat, with a freeze possible for sheltered locations. In fact, most members of the GFS’s ensemble run show below freezing temperatures Monday morning, and several show the possibility of a hard freeze in sheltered locations across the northern plateau.

For now, the National Weather Service isn’t biting too hard on the extent of the cold temps, likely due to the model incontinuity.

The NWS’s Morristown field office is forecasting the following temperatures for Oneida:

Saturday – 55/64
Sunday – 42/63
Monday – 37/59
Tuesday – 39/62

One possibility is that clouds hang around until Monday morning. If that’s the case, the frost-freeze potential will be significantly diminished, but we likely won’t know for sure if that’s going to happen until we get deeper into the weekend. If it does happen, the greatest frost threat may shift to Tuesday morning.

LITTLE RAIN RELIEF SEEN

Models originally were projecting a soaking rain for the entire region this weekend, but that has diminished greatly. In fact, if the latest GFS is correct, we may see very little rain here in the Cumberlands. How much rain we see is going to depend on exactly where the two systems that will impact the Southeast phase. But, for now, it appears that the phase will occur in such a fashion that will keep the heavier rains to our east and west while we’re quite dry in the middle.

The latest edition of the U.S. Drought Monitor, released yesterday, made only a slight increase to the “abnormally dry” classification in Tennessee, and keeps the entire Cumberlands region in good standing as far as drought is concerned. I have a hard time biting that, as some areas here are actually drier than areas to our west, where the “abnormally dry” status is in place. NWS reporting stations are sparsely located here, and much of East Tennessee saw beneficial rains from thunderstorms week before last and again earlier this week. But the areas that didn’t, including the northern plateau, are very dry now. At my home on the edge of the Big South Fork NRRA, for example, we’ve seen less than a half-inch of rain in the past month.

The free-flowing rivers of the Cumberland Plateau continue to flow at historic lows. At the Big South Fork’s Leatherwood Ford, the flow is measured by the U.S.G.S. this morning at 301 cubic feet per second. That is a record low for this date, beating out the 375 cfs from 1986. The flow on the BSF has been setting daily records for over a week now.

On the Clear Fork, where records have been kept longer, we aren’t seeing record low flows, but the flow is still astoundingly low for this time of year. At Burnt Mill Ford this morning, the U.S.G.S. measured the flow at 98 cfs. The daily record is 76 cfs, set in 1963. This is the sort of streamflow we typically don’t see until late May or early June, at least.

On New River, the flow at the U.S. Hwy. 27 bridge this morning was measured at 195 cfs. The daily record is 109 cfs, set in 1963.

For a little perspective, the flow at New River on this date is running 378 cfs or higher 75% of the time, with an average of 587 cfs. At Clear Fork, the flow is running 217 cfs or greater 75% of the time, with an average of 394 cfs. At Leatherwood, the flow is running 724 cfs or greater 75% of the time, with an average of 1,140 cfs.

The low streamflows mean that rafting on the BSF this weekend, one of the peak weekends of the season, is pretty much out of the question.

Wildflowers in bloom Monday afternoon along the Angel Falls Hiking Trail (2.0 miles each way) near Leatherwood Ford (State Hwy. 297, Oneida, Tenn.).

The Big South Fork will host a wildflower hike Saturday morning along the trail, as well as a wildflower horseback ride from Bandy Creek Visitors Center to Charit Creek and back.

The latest GFS model run is showing some pretty significant rain for the Cumberlands this weekend, followed by slightly cooler temperatures, but the frost-freeze threat has all but disappeared from the model over the past couple of runs. In fact, the GFS now shows low temperatures barely getting below the 50s.

The European ECMWF model held firm to colder temps for a run or so, but is now trending towards the GFS. With the Arctic and North Atlantic oscillations crashing to negative territory, it’s too soon to say the threat is totally off the table, but it’s probably on life support at this point.